Treasury Bonds in final blow-off stage of 30-year bull market

Final top in T-Bond futures should be in the 155-00 to 160-00 area.

I believe that the T-Bond market (basis the futures) is in the final blow-off of a bull trend that began in the early 1980s. This current advance should accelerate to the mid to high 150s before the final top in prices (low in rates) occurs.

The advance in mid May completed an 8-month rectangle on the weekly and daily continuation charts (daily chart shown below). This pattern has an unmet target of 158-00 to 158-16. Following the mid May breakout the advance in the market stalled and the upper boundary of the rectangle was retested in mid June.

The daily contract of the Sept. futures shows this retest in close up. Note that the retest has taken the form of a 5-week symmetrical triangle. The advance on Monday penetrated the upper boundary of this small pattern, thus confirming that the retesting process is complete. The target in the Sept. contract is 155-00 to 156-00. (more)