Long-time readers know that I’m unabashedly bullish on agriculture.
The supply and demand fundamentals for food speak for themselves, but
let’s briefly review:
On the demand side:
1) World population isn’t getting any smaller for now. Even some of
the most Malthusian models show a continued rise in global population
for the next few decades until peak resources and economic conditions
begin to thin the herd. In the meantime, demand for basic sustenance
will continue to rise.
2) More importantly, millions of people in the developing world
are being lifted from poverty into the middle class. More wealth
means demand for more Calories. Not only does this increase general
food demand, but often specific demand for things like beef which
require far greater resources to produce.
On the supply side:
1) While industrial farming techniques and genetic modification
have dramatically increased productive yield, cultivated land is on
the decline. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that,
over the last several decades, cultivated land per capita has declined
by 43% worldwide. (more)
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