Here's an old Wall Street [1]
saying that investors should "Sell in May and go away." While there's
no identifiable rationale to explain why that should be good advice,
there is an element of empirical truth. A study by Plexus Asset management
shows that since 1950 the returns for the S&P 500 in the months of
November through May were 8.1%, compared with just 2.4% for the period
from May through October. [James Brumley, one of our talented analysts,
recently warned investors about putting too much stock in this, though. Go here to read his take [2].]
The MSCI World Index, a popular index [3] of global stock market [4]
performance, shows a similar seasonal pattern. In fact, returns for the
MSCI World Index in the months of May through October over the same
post-1950 era are negative. The old adage to sell in May has gained even
more prominence over the past two years, as stocks have endured
gut-wrenching corrections in the summers of 2010 and 2011, only to enjoy
powerful year-end and New Year rallies.
I'd never recommend managing your portfolio using simplistic seasonal
rules, but it's only prudent for investors to contemplate the potential
for at least a short-term correction [5] in global equity markets. (more)
No comments:
Post a Comment