The 5 Stages of Collapse: Where Are We Currently?

In light of the unfolding global sovereign debt fiasco that has turned out to be less of a waterfall and more of an avalanche [than anticipated I present below a description of the 5 stages of collapse and discuss our preparedness. If you haven't read it yet, perhaps you should.] It has been read by 70,000+ people so far – and is still being read by an average of 1,500 people each month – on my site alone.

So says Dmitry Orlov (www.cluborlov.blogspot.com) in edited excerpts from his original article*.

Orlov goes on to say, in part:

Elizabeth Kübler-Ross defined the five stages of coming to terms with grief and tragedy as:

1. denial,
2. anger,
3. bargaining,
4. depression and
5. acceptance,

and applied it quite successfully to various forms of catastrophic personal loss, such as death of a loved one, sudden end to one’s career, and so forth.

Applying the Kübler-Ross Model to Economic Collapse

Several thinkers, notably James Howard Kunstler and, more recently John Michael Greer, have pointed out that the Kübler-Ross model is also quite terrifyingly accurate in reflecting the process by which society as a whole (or at least the informed and thinking parts of it) is reconciling itself to the inevitability of a discontinuous future, with our institutions and life support systems undermined by a combination of:

• resource depletion,
• catastrophic climate change and
• political impotence.

So far, [however,] little has been said specifically about the finer structure of these discontinuities. Instead, there is to be found a continuum of subjective judgments, ranging from “a severe and prolonged recession” (the prediction we most often read in the financial press), to Kunstler’s “Long Emergency,” to the ever-popular “Collapse of Western Civilization,” painted with an ever-wider brush-stroke.

For those of us who have already gone through all of the emotional stages of reconciling ourselves to the prospect of social and economic upheaval, it might be helpful to have a more precise terminology that goes beyond such emotionally charged phrases.

Defining a taxonomy of collapses might prove to be more than just an intellectual exercise: based on our abilities and circumstances, some of us may be able to specifically plan for a certain stage of collapse as a temporary, or even permanent, stopping point. Even if society at the current stage of socioeconomic complexity will no longer be possible, and even if, as Tainter points in his “Collapse of Complex Societies,” there are circumstances in which collapse happens to be the correct adaptive response, it need not automatically cause a population crash, with the survivors disbanding into solitary, feral humans dispersed in the wilderness and subsisting miserably. Collapse can be conceived of as an orderly, organized retreat rather than a rout.

The collapse of the Soviet Union, for example, [did not deprive the population of] food, housing, medicine, or any of the other survival necessities. Many institutions, including the military, public utilities, and public transportation, continued to function throughout [the decline. Even though] there was much social dislocation and suffering, society as a whole did not collapse [and this] allowed the Soviet population to inadvertently achieve a greater level of collapse-preparedness than is currently possible in the United States… (more)