Technically Precious With Merv Burack

Strength: As gold broke below that second FAN trend line on Thursday gold’s short term momentum indicator moved into its negative zone. On the Friday bounce the momentum moved back above its neutral line but the indicator remains just below its negative sloping trigger line. Of concern is the fact that even though gold bounced upwards on Friday the short term momentum remains below its level from the previous August low although gold is above its August low.

Volume: The daily volume action remains low and below its average 15 day volume value.

The short term rating, at the Friday close, is now a full BEARISH rating. This is confirmed by the very short term moving average line which is now below the short term line.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, that should be to the up side as the latest price move seems to be in that direction and the Stochastic Oscillator is also turning upwards BUT I just think that the price will hit the resistance of the second FAN line and not go any further. For that reason I will go with the lateral direction until the second FAN line is decisively breached or gold turns back to the down side.

SILVER

As with gold, silver couldn’t seem to make any headway this past week. It continues to show weakness despite the Friday advance.

LONG TERM

Trend: On the long term silver continues to trade above its positive sloping long term moving average line.

Strength: The long term momentum continues to move in a basic sideways direction but above its neutral line in the positive zone. It has, however, dropped below its long term trigger line and the trigger is sloping downward.

Volume: The volume indicator was not able to make any headway this past week in keeping with the price trend. It remains just above its positive sloping trigger line.

At the Friday close the long term rating remains BULLISH.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Trend: Silver dropped below its intermediate term moving average line on Thursday but moved back above the line on Friday. The line itself is still in a gentle upward slope.

Strength: The intermediate term momentum indicator remains in its positive zone but had dropped below its trigger line with the trigger now pointing downward.

Volume: Although the volume indicator is basically moving sideways it did drop below its intermediate term trigger line with the line sloping downward.

On the intermediate term at the Friday close the rating remains BULLISH but is in a very precarious state. This bull is still confirmed by the short term moving average line being above the intermediate term line.

SHORT TERM

As with gold, silver is not in all that good shape from the short term standpoint.

Trend: Silver dropped below its short term moving average line early in the week and has remained there all week. The line itself is now sloping downward.

Strength: The short term momentum indicator was in its negative zone for most of the week but did cross into the positive zone by just a hair on Friday. It remains below its trigger line and the line is pointing downward.

Volume: The daily volume action is very low as could be expected when the price action is towards the down side.

Putting it all together at the Friday close the short term rating was BEARISH. This is confirmed by the very short term moving average line tracking below the short term line.

Merv’s Precious Metals Indices Table

Well, that’s it for this week. Comments are always welcome and should be addressed to mervburak@gmail.com.

Merv Burak, CMT