Zillow Forecast: Case-Shiller Composite 20 to Drop 3.5% YoY, Rise 0.9% MoM in May

The May 10- and 20-City Composite Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes are set to be released tomorrow, July 26. Zillow has forecasted both of the non-seasonally adjusted indexes and derived the year-over-year and month-over-month values. To forecast the indices we used the current Zillow Home Value Index value for May, which we released almost three weeks ago, the April Case-Shiller home indices numbers and the national percentage for foreclosure re-sales in May.

We forecast that the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index will decline 3.5 percent on a year-over-year basis, but rise 0.9 percent on a month-over-month basis. For the Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index, we forecast that it will show a decline of 2.9 percent on a year-over-year basis, while displaying an increase of 0.9 percent on a month-over-month basis.

These forecasts are for the non-seasonally adjusted series only, however, it is important to keep in mind that the Case-Shiller indices include foreclosure re-sales. We have previously addressed the shortcomings of these indices due to the inclusion of foreclosure re-sales. Our most recent analysis on this topic can be found here.