Tuesday, May 31, 2011

SEASONAL TRENDS: WHAT TO EXPECT FOR JUNE

Another month is just about in the books so the wise market player has to begin thinking a few steps ahead.  Next week will mark the beginning of June, a traditionally lackluster month for the S&P 500.  The always resourceful Stock Trader’s Almanac has the breakdown for the history of June:
  • The “summer rally” in most years is the weakest rally of all four seasons
  • Week after June Triple-Witching Day Dow down 17 of last 19
  • RECENT RECORD: S&P up 10, down 5, average gain 0.1%, ranks seventh
  • Much stronger for NASDAQ, average gain 1.2% last 15 years
  • Watch out for end-of-quarter “portfolio pumping” on last day of June, Dow down 15 of last 21, NASDAQ down 5 straight
  • Pre-presidential election year Junes: #5 S&P & NASDAQ, Dow weaker ranks #7
  • June ends NASDAQ’s Best Eight Months.

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