Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 7.5 percentage points to 28.5% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. This is the lowest optimism has been since August 26, 2010. It is also the fourth consecutive week that bullish sentiment has been below its historical average of 39%.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially flat over the next six months, edged down 0.3 percentage points to 31.4%. This is the second consecutive week that neutral sentiment has been slightly above its historical average of 31%.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, jumped 7.8 percentage points to 40.1%. This is the highest pessimism has been since September 2, 2010. Bearish sentiment has now been above its historical average of 30% for four consecutive weeks.
The continued volatility in the markets is clearly taking a toll on individual investors’ attitudes, as can be seen by today’s numbers. Neither bullish nor bearish sentiment are at levels that would be considered contrarian, however, based on the survey’s historical results. Nonetheless, if the S&P 500 is in the midst of a correction, it is likely we could continue to see elevated levels bearish sentiment until a short-term floor for stock prices is found.
No comments:
Post a Comment