More Turmoil in the Middle East as Protests Spread to Libya

Bahrain, Yemen, and even Libya became stages to demonstrations and protests today as the success of the opposition in Egypt, and the lack of energy shown by the dreaded Mubarak Regime inspires anti-government groups across the Arab World to take their destinies into their hands, or at least to make an attempt to have their voices heard.

The Arab opposition is brought together by practical issues and concerns rather than ideological impulses or even a strong aount of political consciousness. It has been the case, after all for decades that the leaders of the region ignore the political beliefs and aspirations of the populace. What spurs the crowds to action now are family and survival issues in contrast to religious themes or political demands, even if these complaints tend to be heard the loudest due to the sophistication of those voicing them.

Among the nations in focus today, Libya is perhaps one of the most suitable candidates for turmoil and revolutionary upheaval in light of the fact that the country has been ruled for almost 40 years by Colonel Muammar AlQaddhafi who reains unaccountable to any person or institution. Arguably the grip of the Libyan regime is far more brutal than those in Egypt or Bahrain. The leader`s idiosyncratic beliefs and philosohical stance that puts him in opposition to the traditions of Sunni Islam make the regime at least as unpleasant as any other Arab dictatorship. In addition, Libya, unlike for instance Syria, cannot reference the costs of a long-standing confrontation with Israel as a justification for its failure to improve the lot of the citizens in economic life, or the long list of expenditures that prevent the country from modernizing.

Just as interesting is Iran, although it is not an Arab nation, and has far greater sophistication and experience in dealing with this kind of demonstrations than its inept peers in the Middle East. There have been some attempts by Iran`s opposition groups to occupy Tehran`s main streets through demonstrations and protests, but with little effect so far as the security forces employ their expertise to stay one step ahead of the demonstrators. In the Iranian Parliament some voices were heard calling for the execution of the opposition`s most influential leaders Mahdi Karroubi and Zakariya Moussawi.

Events, in short, are continuing to progress with unpredictable speed, and chaotic movements.We believe that the Arab World`s revolutions are headed to their second phase now, with the most powerful, brutal and deeply entrenched regimes under the greatest threat as opposition movements gather moral strength from the success of the opposition in Egypt. We believe that the Middle East will remain a dominant theme for much of this year, implying better than average performance for commodities, with oil and gold in particular benefiting from the uncertainty.