Although my broad market indicators are telling me that the market could end mildly positive, there could be some significant downdrafts if taxes are dramatically raised in the United States, starting the first of the year. Odds are high that the tax situation will remain unchanged, but should Congress be unable to keep the current rates, I suspect many stock market investors will look for ways to pull profits into 2010 at the current tax rates, rather than take the risk of a tax hike on profits in 2011. If this occurs, we could see a lot more selling than buying in the last few days of this year, which could drive the market substantially lower.
My forecasting model tells me that the near-term low for gold miners should occur this week -- Thursday, to be specific. See the forecast chart for the Gold Miners Index (HUI) below: (more)
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