Successful Investing in China Despite the Risks

Investing always involves a kind of leap of faith. Investors have to believe that the numbers they are looking at are real. They have to believe that the financial statements reasonably reflect reality. Without that trust, there is no point in going further. The investor is like a cook unsure of the safety of his ingredients.

This is why things like auditors and listing requirements and boards of directors are so important. This is why due diligence is important: asking questions, talking to people on the ground. They give some assurance to investors that what they see is real and not a fraud.

Sometimes the lines can be very fuzzy. And sometimes the taint of fraud dogs a market, making all the stocks of that market cheap, whether they are fraudulent or not. Such a market is also very susceptible to rumor.

I think the market for the U.S.-listed China-based companies has that taint. That explains the very cheap multiples that many such companies trade for. I’m talking about price-to-earnings ratios of 5–8 times for companies growing 20–30% a year. (more)