The economic elites are confident that there won't be a double-dip recession, just as they were confident that there wouldn't be a recession in 2008. That turned into the worst economic downturn since the 1930s. Once again there are a number of warning signs that the economy is falling into recession and these are being ignored.
We have entered another period similar to late 2007 and 2008, when the economic establishment had a rosy view of the economy, but a number of indicators were flashing warning signs that a major downturn was coming.
Neither the Federal Reserve, the IMF, nor Wall Street correctly predicted a recession would begin in December 2007. None of these august bodies even realized the greatest economic downturn since the Depression was taking place even months after it had begun. Bullishness once again reigns supreme among the economic elites as one indicator after another is signaling trouble ahead.
Here are 10 reasons to think that a there will be a recession soon:
1. The ECRI weekly leading indicators have dropped to minus 7.7%. There has been no case since its existence when a recession didn't take place if this indicator fell to minus 10%. This doesn't mean that it has to fall that low, a recession is still very likely if it even gets close. Falling below zero and staying in that range for any period of time also signals a recession. In the 2007, the recession began three months after this indicator turned negative. (more)
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