S & P - No Confirmation Yet That The Decline Has Stopped.

In the last article on 1 July, mention was made about a rally potential, but on a "maybe" basis. None,
of any consequence developed, and what was described as a weak market is living up to that
characterization. There is little need to get too analytical here. The trend has turned down, for some
time now on the daily, and more importantly, also on the weekly. Price remains in an oversold condition,
and the caveat issued last time about oversold conditions is that they can become MORE oversold. Always wait for a sign from the market before deciding a change has occurred. So far, none has.

We still see the low from Thursday, third bar from the end, as important for the near term. The range was somewhat contained, volume increased, and the increased effort rallied to close near the upper end of the bar. The only force that can close a market on the upper end of a bar is stronger buying over selling efforts. One would not expect to see buying stronger when price is making a new low, so that raises a red flag of caution for downside continuation. Keep in mind, price has been down eight days without any kind of relief rally. (more)

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