FT's Wolfgang Münchau has a mostly excellent commentary on why Greece will default, but not this year.
The key point he notes is that Greece has an insolvency problem, but not a short-term liquidity problem. This is the exact opposite of the problem that was faced by Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. While it could be argued they were solvent, well at least Bear Stearns, they both suffered from a liquidity crisis. They couldn't borrow funds to pay outstanding obligations.
Münchau observes, correctly, that credit markets are still open to the Greeks, but at a price: (more)
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