Friday, March 5, 2010

Speculative Premium - And Why The Markets Will CRASH

Yes, I said CRASH, and I meant it.

Why?

"Events" like this:

SINGAPORE/CAIRO, March 1 (Reuters) - Copper is likely to climb when trading starts on Monday, lifted by uncertainty over supply after the world's top copper producer Chile was pounded by a massive earthquake, analysts said over the weekend.

The front-month contract opened up more than 8%.

This, despite the fact that the earthquake was hundreds of miles away from the mines in Chile and there was zero damage to them. Some were offline for a few hours due to power failures, but none suffered any physical or structural damage, nor did their export points and the transportation network between the two.

So why did price spike more than 8% even though all this was known by the market before it re-opened for trading? (more)

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