Monday, November 9, 2009

Gold Mining Stocks May Underperform Bullion: Technical Analysis

Gold stocks are near their most expensive level relative to the price of bullion in 14 months, a sign that they may start to underperform the metal, according to WJB Capital Group Inc.

Gold traded at 11.5 times the level of the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index in October 2008, the most ever, as the financial crisis caused by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s bankruptcy sparked a stock market retreat and spurred investors to buy bullion as a haven. The gap has since narrowed as the mining index more than doubled to catch up with the metal’s gain, beating gold’s 48 percent advance.

The ratio, which never surpassed 6.4 from 1984 until September 2008, dropped to less than 6 in September and was 6.3 today. Its return to the level prior to Lehman’s bankruptcy signals that bullion is likely to begin outperforming its producers, said John Roque, managing director in technical analysis at WJB in New York. (more)

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