Global Stocks May Fall as U.S. Yields Rise: Technical Analysis

Global stocks may be headed for a “correction” as an increase in U.S. 10-year yields prompts a reduction of carry trades, according to Citigroup Inc.

The yield on 10-year government bonds climbed 37 basis points from a July 31 low to Aug. 8. Using that range, the resistance level stands at 3.55 percent from a low of 3.18 percent on Oct. 1, said Yutaka Yoshino, chief technical analyst at Citigroup in Tokyo, who uses the Japanese technical analysis method of “ichimoku kinko,” which looks at wave patterns and repeating trends. Yields move inversely to bond prices and 1 basis point is equal to 0.01 percentage point.

“If we pass that 3.55 level on the yield, we stop being in a rebound phase and enter into a rising trend,” said Yoshino. “Inflation concerns are starting to creep in and the Federal Reserve has no control over long-term interest rates.” (more)