Friday, June 5, 2009

US Jobs Report

The U.S. economy shed “only” 345,000 jobs in May, the Labor Department said this morning. We forecast Wednesday that today’s employment gauge would beat expectations, but wow… this number smashed the Street’s guess of 520,000. Last month’s loss is the smallest since it all hit the fan last September.

May’s number establishes a trend for 2009, too. The jobs scene is far from rosy, but at least it doesn’t seem to be getting worse… not yet anyway.

But the details of today’s jobs report aren’t quite as rosy as the headline number. The unemployment rate rose to 9.4%, notably higher than the expected 9.2%. In other words, the unemployed are not being rehired. While the rate of firings cooled off, the bread line is just getting longer and longer. 9.4% is the highest rate since 1983.

And it’s funny how the dark science of charting works. The chart above would lead you to believe the jobs scene has bottomed… but does this one inspire the same confidence?

More disturbing details:

  • Over 6 million people have lost their job since the recession officially began in December 2007
  • The “long-term unemployed” -- those out of work for six months or more -- now exceed a record 4 million. Many of these “discouraged” people are not counted toward the official unemployment rate
  • 9.1 million people are working part time because they can’t find a full-time gig -- also not counted as officially unemployed.

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