Invest in Moly?

For the first time in years, the Chinese have become net importers of molybdenum,” reports Chris Mayer in his latest Special Situations alert. Moly, if you are unfamiliar, is a lynchpin of the energy complex. It’s a vital resource for oil pipelines, nuclear reactors and fuel refiners. Above all, moly is used to strengthen steel.

“China recently became a net importer of moly because its mines are too costly to run profitably at current low moly prices. Various estimates put about half of China's moly production at costs north of $13 a pound. The current moly price is only $8 and change -- down from $30-plus last year, mainly as energy markets softened. So there have been a lot of shutdowns in China, as Chinese producers can't make any money.

“China is the world's largest producer of steel, by far. No one's even close. China produces nearly 40% of the world's steel. It makes twice as much steel as the No. 2 guy, the European Union. Much of that steel will need moly.

“Therefore, any rebound in moly is bound up in the China growth story. In fact, over the past five years, Chinese demand for moly has grown 27% annually, compared with only 4% globally. China alone now makes up 25% of the global demand for moly -- about 110 million pounds.”

Thus, if you believe in the China boom, concludes Chris, “molybdenum is a winner, albeit one that is temporarily resting, like a basketball player taking a breather before he steps back on the court. All the elements that pushed moly to $30-plus per pound in the first place are still in place for yet another run at three sawbucks or better. Molybdenum is cheap at $8 per pound.”