In November 2005 when gold was trading about $450 I predicted the mega-move in gold up to $720/oz by noticing a very large build-up of call options in the HUI component shares http://www.marketforceanalysis.com/Pubished%20Articles/assets/Explosive%20Rise%20in%20Gold%20Mining%20Shares%20Coming.pdf)
In August 2007 I identified a massive Gold call option build-up in the COMEX DEC 2007 contract and predicted a big gold move (http://www.marketforceanalysis.com/Published_Articles07_assets/COMEX%20GOLD%20OPTION%20OI.pdf ). Gold was trading at $660/oz at the time and ran up to over $1000/oz by March 2008.
In July of 2008 I noticed a similar build-up in the COMEX December Call options indicating a major upward move in gold before the end of 2008. Considering what transpired in the financial markets from July to December 2008, after I made this prediction, it made perfect sense. We now know, however, that two large banks, probably JPMorgan and HSBC, sold a massive amount of futures short in July 2008 equivalent to 10% of global gold production and changed the intuitive direction of the gold market into a counter-intuitive one. As a result the CFTC was obliged to take note and commenced an investigation into both the silver and gold markets on the COMEX for manipulation. So I think a rain-check is deserved on the 2008 market call until the CFTC officially declares the manipulation or the market blows up (I think the latter will happen before the former!) (more)
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