Written by Martin Armstrong - former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. | Friday, 24 April 2009 07:44
A turn date in Martin Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model passed on April 19th or 20th, depending on how many days you use to calculate a year. The graphic shows that the model is predicting a top at this turn date before heading down into a long-term low in June 2011. As Martin explains in the essay below, the model does not necessarily mean that a top in the Dow Industrials is at hand.
For instance, the 1989 turn date forecasted a top in the Japanese Nikkei. The Economic Confidence Model was created with inputs from around the world and therefore is not limited in scope to just pinpointing stock market tops and bottoms. Personally, I am looking at the US Dollar, the Treasury market or the Shanghai market for signs of a top. All these markets have experienced strong rallies off of recent bottoms and might be ready to turn lower. (more)
No comments:
Post a Comment