Crude Oil Weakness is Not Gold Friendly

by Dan Norcini
Trader Dan
Amidst all the talk about “Grexit” ( are the rest of the readers as sick of hearing about this as I am at this point?), one thing being overlooked, especially by those who keep calling for some sort of rip roaring surge higher in gold and silver, is the fact that crude oil is weakening.
In short, with many looking at the situation in Greece as contributing to a hit on economic growth, and with the fact that China is struggling, crude oil is moving lower as traders are concerned over a SLOWDOWN IN DEMAND.
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ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP)

ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas, and natural gas liquids worldwide. Its portfolio includes shale and oil sands assets; lower-risk legacy assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; various international developments; and exploration prospects. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Conoco (NYSE: COP) with the added notations:

COP declined into December of last year. When the stock finally bottomed, COP ended up finding support at $60.00 (green) over the next 7 months. Now that the stock appears to be falling back down to that support level again, traders should be able to expect some sort of bounce. However, if the $6o.00 support were to break, lower prices should follow.

The Tale of the Tape: COP has an important level of support at $60.00. A trader could enter a long position at $60.00 with a stop placed under the level. If the stock were to break below the support a short position could be entered instead.
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With Market Closed, Trading Greek ETF GREK Is Gamble, Guessing Game

“The ETF can’t be more liquid than the underlying, and we know the underlying can be become quite illiquid” – Howard Marks

There’s been quite a bit of spirited discussion this year about whether ETFs provide liquidity. The proliferation of exchange traded bond vehicles and the concurrent decline in dealer inventories has led some to question whether investors are being lulled to sleep by so-called “phantom liquidity.”
Barclays took a close look at the issue recently and discovered that since 2009, the “net” portion of gross bond ETF trade volumes had declined from over 20% to just 12%, which the bank cites as evidence that ETFs are adding liquidity to the market.
But this could simply reflect the fact that volumes for ETFs that track assets like junk bonds have skyrocketed over the same period, with low yields fueling both the supply and demand side of the equation and thereby increasing the likelihood that flows will be diversifiable (versus unidirectional).

READ MORE
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Commercial Metals Company (NYSE: CMC)

Commercial Metals Company manufactures, recycles, and markets steel and metal products, and related materials and services in the United States and internationally. The Americas Recycling segment processes scrap metals for use as a raw material by manufacturers of new metal products. The Americas Mills segment operates 5 steel mills producing reinforcing bars, angles, flats, rounds, small beams, fence-post sections, and other shapes. The Americas Fabrication segment operates fence post manufacturing plants, construction-related product facilities, and plants that bend, weld, cut, and fabricate steel. The International Mill segment engages in mill, recycling, and fabrication operations through the operation of two rolling minimills that produce reinforcing bar (rebar) and merchant products. The International Marketing and Distribution segment processes, sells, and distributes steel products, ferrous and nonferrous metals, and other industrial products.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Commercial Metals (NYSE: CMC) below with my added notations:

Starting in September, CMC declined into January, and from there the stock started a 5-month rally. During the decline, and subsequent rally, CMC created a very clear level of resistance at $17 (green). A break above that $17 level should mean higher prices for the stock, and on Friday CMC broke that level. And for confirmation, the stock broke out on a major increase in volume.

The Tale of the Tape: CMC broke through its key level of resistance at $17. A long trade could be entered on a pull back down to that level. However, a break back below $17 could negate the forecast for a higher move and would be an opportunity to get short the stock.
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Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) 114% Profit on a 6.4% Move

Carmakers reported surprisingly strong U.S. light-vehicle sales in May with a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 17.71 million units, the highest since 2005. Aided by five weekends, including the usual Memorial Day blowouts, daily sales of 62,558 units were 5.5% higher than the same month last year.

Besides great weather for car shopping, manufacturers have benefited lately from stronger employment, low gasoline prices and increasing credit availability.

But you wouldn't know it to look at their stock prices. (more)

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Buy These 3 Dips as the Market Slips: Purefunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (HACK), SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE), Powershares QQQ Trust (QQQ)

The speculative nature of short selling suggests that the shorts were probably prepping for a Greece-influenced selloff weeks ago. The most recent short interest data indicates this is the case, as a few of the widely traded index ETFs saw larger than normal increases in short positions.

Knowing where the short sellers have increased their positions can be a key component of making the right buys on major corrections like the one we’re seeing today, courtesy of Greece.
The mechanics are simple: If short sellers are increasing their positions ahead of a pullback, it means the positions are likely to have been “presold” — thus, there are likely to be fewer sellers in the market on a heavily shorted position. (more)

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Stocks To Watch: NTRS, GIGA, MSFT, WBAI

Northern Trust Corporation (NASDAQ:NTRS) is butting up against 78.88 resistance, which is its all-time high. A break through this key resistance level could lead to $80-80.5, projected by the upper channel line. Thie price has been in an orderly bullish up-channel since early Frebruary. Worth watching for a breakout.

It looks like Giga-tronics, Incorporated (NASDAQ:GIGA) is starting to turn back up and indicators are giving the first bullish signs. On Friday it closed just slightly below its 50-day EMA, which if broken could accelerate the stock toward its June highs around the 2.20 area. A volatility squeeze seems eminent. You want to watch the stock closely as GIGA can move quickly and you want to be ready for this move once it happens.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) after topping in April, the stock has been in decline, making new lower lows and lower highs.The stock has a strong support at about $45 and the 100-day EMA is being defended as well. Ñext week the Bulls need to hold price above this key level on daily closing basis or the Bears will likely keep pressing for the gap fill. Keep the stock on your trading screen for Monday.

Here's a potential breakdown play - 500 dot com Ltd (NYSE:WBAI). Daily technical chart shows a rising wedge pattern with a negative MACD divergence implying that a trend reversal is on the cards.