Commodity collapse leads to rare opportunity

Commodities have had a rough go of it the past 4-years, declining almost 40%. The above charts look at the Thompson Reuters Commodity Index since the 1980’s.
The left chart is based upon “monthly closing prices,” reflecting that a neckline support test is at hand at (1).
The right chart is the same chart, based upon Hi/Lo/Closing prices. A dual test of support is in play at (1) in this chart.
Both charts reflect that  long-term tests of support are in play and support is support until broken. Often support like this is a place where at least a counter trend rally takes place.
US Dollar weakness and Commodity strength might surprise a few and could be a sign of some macro global strength could be at hand.
Joe Friday just the facts…. Commodities are testing strong support lines. What they do going forward could tell us a good deal about global growth or lack of going forward. A break of this support could signal growth concerns.
Bottom line-A rare an important price point for commodities is in play right now!

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Stocks To Watch: JCP, TASR, DGLY, XGTI, ZIOP, HTZ

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J C Penney Company Inc (NYSE:JCP) On a technical basis, the daily chart shows higher lows and higher highs, which is a positive trend suggesting bulls are still in control. The next high should be another higher high around the $10 level. Immediate resistance remains at 8.75, with a break above it required to confirm another leg higher. Weekly call options were hot on Friday. Additionally, this stock has been showing signs of accumulation over past couple weeks. Keep it in your watchlist for next week.

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Shares of TASER International, Inc. (NASDAQ:TASR) made a new 52 week high on Friday closing at $32.37 on heavy volume. The stock hit a high of $33.23, which is now resistance for Monday’s continuation move. If the stock can break through resistance, we should see another upside move. The momentum indicators are all in bullish territory.

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Digital Ally, Inc.(NASDAQ:DGLY) showed buying strength all day on Friday. Price is slowly recovering. The 16-16.27 area is a critical resistance region that can determine overall bias for the stock in medium-term. Keep an eye on these levels. So far, momentum indicators are in favor of an upward price movement: The MACD has generated a buy signal and is currently above the 0 line and RSI is above its 50% level. On watch.

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xG Technology Inc (NASDAQ:XGTI) is approaching a key resistance level at 40c, a break above that resistance level would lead to an initial target in the 58-60c area, its January high and then to levels not seen since December 2014. Technical chart shows bullish sign with RSI above 50% levels and MACD on top of signal line.

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ZIOPHARM Oncology Inc. (NASDAQ:ZIOP) surged over 8% on decent volume, what looks like the start of a potential bounce. The stock is still oversold as evidenced by the stochastics and RSI, so there is still some chance that the stock may test the $11 levels in coming days. Stop loss must be placed at $8.6

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Hertz Global Holdings Inc (NYSE:HTZ) had a solid breakout Friday on almost double its average volume in the midst of strong call option activity. The stock hit a high of $22.41 which is now resistance for Monday’s follow through move. Daily technical indicators are looking bullish. The MACD is negative but is rising above its signal line and Slow stochastic and RSI have re-entered their respective Bullish zones.

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Bonds (TLT) Generate Trend Model Neutral Signal on Breakaway Gap

Yesterday an Intermediate-Term Trend Model Neutral signal was generated on TLT, the ETF we use to calculate our official Trend Model signal. This combined with a breakdown from the congestion zone and a what appears to be a breakaway gap tells us there is likely more downside to come for bonds.
Let's look at the six-month bar chart for TLT. We can see that the Trend Model Neutral signal generated because the 20-EMA crossed below the 50-EMA (seen best in the thumbnail). It was a Neutral signal and not a SELL signal because technically we consider TLT to be a "bull market" because the 50-EMA is above the 200-EMA. A Neutral signal implies that you go into cash or fully hedge. A SELL signal on the other hand would be a possible shorting opportunity. On the TLT chart there are also a few gaps that I'd like to point out.  (more)

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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et)	report	period	ACTUAL	CONSENSUS forecast	previous
MONDAY, MAY 4
10 am	Factory orders	March		2.4%	0.2%
TUESDAY,  MAY 5
8:30 am	Trade deficit	March		-$43.0 bln	-$35.4 bln
10 am	ISM nonmanufacturing	April		56.5%	56.5%
WEDNESDAY, MAY 6
8:15 am	ADP employment	April		--	189,000
8:30 am	Productivity	Q1		-1.4%	-2.2%
8:30 am	Unit labor costs	Q1		4.0%	4.1%
THURSDAY, MAY 7
8:30 am	Weekly jobless claims	May 2		277,000	262,000
3 pm	Consumer credit	March		--	$16 bln
FRIDAY, MAY 8
8:30 am	Nonfarm payrolls	April		220,000	126,000
8:30 am	Unemployment rate	April		5.4%	5.5%
8:30 am	Average hourly earnings	April		0.2%	0.3%
10 am	Wholesale inventories	March		--	0.3%

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Crude Bounces After Oil Rig Count Decline Slows

Oil prices have tumbled this morning ahead of the Baker Hughes rig count data but algos bounced them after the pace of oil rig count decline slowed further. For an unprecedented 21st week in a row, the US total rig count declined this week (down 27 to 905).  Oil rigs fell 24 to 679 for the fastest total collapse in rig counts in history (down over 57% in 21 weeks). This is afaster pace of decline than the previous week for total rigs but a slower pace of decline for oil rigs.

• *U.S. OIL RIG COUNT DOWN 24 TO 679, BAKER HUGHES SAYS
• *U.S. TOTAL RIG COUNTDOWN 27 TO 905 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS

If lagged oil prices are any historical guide then the decline is due to stall very soon…

Oil Rig count decline is slowing…
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Biotech iShares (NASDAQ:IBB): Investors Are Jumping off the Biotech Bandwagon, Here’s What to Do Now

by Greg Guenthner
Daily Reckoning
Wait– is that the sound of that famous biotech bubble finally popping?
Can’t say, dude. But biotechs are definitely losing steam these days, and the worst could be yet to come. Today, I’ll show you exactly what to do about it…
We took profits on our big biotech trade earlier this month, booking double-digit gains on Biotech iShares (NASDAQ:IBB). IBB thundered nearly 21% higher year-to-date while the S&P 500 was only up about 2%.
But we didn’t pick up our marbles and go home because we thought the biotech boom was out of fuel. We just thought our trade was getting a little ahead of itself, that it might need a breather before heading north again. Big difference.
Continue Reading at DailyReckoning.com…

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Here’s Why Oil is Rallying to Its Highest Level This Year

by Myra P. Saefong
Market Watch
U.S. crude supplies have stood at a record high since January, with little hope for a reprieve from the 46% price drop the market suffered in 2014.
Crude supplies remain at a record, but the outlook for the market is starting to improve as the number of U.S. rigs actively drilling for oil continue to fall, supplies at the nation’s storage hub begin to drop and tensions in the Middle East raise concerns over the potential disruptions to global supplies.
Here are 4 charts that show oil’s improving outlook:
Continue Reading at MarketWatch.com…

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