• The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF GDXJ is down 87.0 percent in the past five years.
• The ETF may have finally bottomed and has not made a new low since July.
• The recent breakout above the 50-day SMA is encouraging, but major resistance remains.
There’s no question that 2015 was yet another tough year for gold
miners, and the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF is down another
17.8 percent this year. In the past five years, the GDXJ has lost 87.0
percent of its value while the S&P 500 has surged higher.
However, shareholders may finally have reason for optimism headed into
2016. Here’s a look at several reasons why the technicals of the ETF are
looking up in the short-term.
Finally Finding Support
After years of steady declines, the GDXJ finally seems to have found
some support at the $18 level. In fact the ETF hasn’t made a new low
since July of 2015.
The $18 level held during a November re-test, giving shareholders even more reason for optimism.
Moving Average Breakout
In addition to the new support level, the GDXJ closed out the shortened
Christmas trading week with a breakout above its 50-day simple moving
average (SMA).
Although it opened Monday’s session down about 1.7 percent, this move
represented the first time the GDXJ had closed above its 50-day SMA
since late October.
Tough Resistance Ahead
Although the breakout was certainly welcome news for frustrated
investors, the short-term move has done little to change the longer term
bearish technicals of the ETF.
For now, bulls will be watching for a breakout above the
downward-sloping multi-year resistance line that is currently at around
$21.25 and a subsequent breakout above the 200-day SMA at $21.83.
If those major resistance levels are broken, investors can begin to
realistically hope that 2016 will be a much better year for the GDXJ.