In this article, I show you my analysis and share my thoughts on what
is likely to take place with sugar looking forward 2-3 months if not
longer. Instead of writing a long article I have attached three charts
which clearly show my thinking and price projections.
MONTHLY CHART OF SUGAR
The monthly chart moves as slow as molasses for trading and
investing, but it does provide valuable information. The key data it
shows us are the major trend, support and resistance levels, and
potential reversal signals via candlestick patterns.
Typically, if a chart shows a long lower or upper wick it signals
price has found either support or resistance and a change in direction
is likely to occur.
The chart below is currently showing up what I call “Tweezers”. Two
candles both with long upper wicks which tell us seller are present and
selling into the buying pressure. This is a great signal that lower
prices are very possible. You should keep in mind that we are only half
way through the month of December which means this candle still has
another 10+ days of trading before it closes. So this is not a true
tweeze pattern until the month is over.
DAILY CHART OF SUGAR & COT DATA
This chart below shows some very interesting data which one of my
subscribers pointed out a couple weeks ago. I have been watching the
price of sugar waiting for a potential setup to form and it looks as
though the time has come which I will show in more detail later in this
article.
What I like most about this information is the COT data.
Specifically, the spec traders position which show the average
joe/gamblers are all very bullish trying to get their sugar fix.
Typically, the small spec positions are based on emotions and when
everyone is doing something, people don’t like to be left behind so they
follow the herd mentality, BUY BUY BUY!
As you can see in the recent trading the price of sugar has been
chopping around with increased volatility, which tells me sellers are
entering the market.
DAILY CHART OF SUGAR TRADE SETUP
Below I have laid out visually the key resistance levels for sugar.
Ideally, the sooner price breaks down the lower price is likely to fall
as it will have strong momentum. If price lingers and moves above the
$15 level for several days, then it won't be as bearish of a setup in my
opinion.
The breakdown that I have drawn on the chart with red arrows shows
the best case scenario. Unfortunately, there is not an inverse EFT for
sugar. For one to profit from falling sugar you will need to short sell
the sugar ETF SGG.
SUGAR TRADE SETUP CONCLUSION:
In short, I think sugar is/has setup for a short trade and will fall
over the coming months. Nothing in the financial market is for certain,
but I do like this trade setup for a small speculative position.