Saturday, November 28, 2015

An Analysis Of 100 Baggers



This is an analysis of past 100-bagger stocks. A 100-bagger is a stock which increases in value 100 fold (i.e., a stock which goes from $1 to $100). The term "bagger" was popularized by Peter Lynch, the former fund manager of Fidelity Magellan. He actually spoke most often of 10- baggers, however I figured that looking at 100-baggers would be more fun. By looking back I hoped to discover some common characteristics which would aid me in identifying potential multi-baggers of the future. Of course all my analysis is grounded in the fundamentals of companies. However once I find those stocks with the fundamentals I like, it was my hope that this exercise would help me to understand better why some stocks appear to go nowhere despite solid fundamentals while others make dizzying advances, how long those moves can last, when to enter and when to exit, etc.

I will be including lots of charts so I should describe their format. I make my own charts because I want to see certain things on them not normally present on stock charts (such as earnings lines, growth rates, and PEG ratios). Below is the chart of NTRI, a 100-bagger I will go over in more detail later.

 

 In blue is the adjusted closing share price (adjusted for stock splits). The pink through dark red step function lines are the trailing twelve month EPS times various multiples (see the legend on the right). All EPS figures have also been adjusted for any stock splits. These lines, like the closing price, are read on the left-hand scale. The green step function lines are the year over year percentage change in quarterly EPS (green dotted line) and ttm EPS (green dashed line). (more)

Precious Metals Sector Given Green Light And Low Risk Entry

  • Have the problems exposed by the financial crisis of 2008 been addressed and dealt with to any extent? - no they have not, they have been papered over by creating more debt and printing money, thus making the underlying problems much worse.
  • Has debt shrunk since 2008? - no, it has exploded.
  • Has the money supply contracted since 2008? - no, it has expanded massively.
  • Has the derivatives pyramid been reduced in magnitude since 2008? - no it has continued to compound.
  • Has the global economy grown sufficiently in the years since 2008 to more than cover the extra load imposed by the growth in the factors listed above? No, it has not, all it is has done is limp along, lamed by debt.
Logically, one would expect massive expansion or growth in the factors listed above to be bullish for gold and silver, which should hold their value in real terms, and many PM sector investors banking on such logic have as we know been ruined, so why have gold and silver dropped for 4 years now? (more)

Friday, November 27, 2015

AEterna Zentaris Inc. (NASDAQ:AEZS)




AEterna Zentaris Inc. (NASDAQ:AEZS) stock closed above the trigger point on the hourly chart with expanding volume and is registering a strong Bullish signal. Let’s see whether the stock can gather enough momentum to break through Wednesday’s high. If the Bulls are able to push through 11.68, there will be another rally towards $13. Note: On Wednesday, the company reaffirmed that its business and prospects remain fundamentally strong and that the ddilution from Series B Share Purchase Warrants has been substantially eliminated, something that sounds very good for shareholders. Keep the stock under the radar.

Clovis Oncology Inc (NASDAQ:CLVS)


Clovis Oncology Inc (NASDAQ:CLVS) is starting to heat up and I expect to see it trading above $32 or better very soon. This bottom play has started to bounce nicely off its bottom and the momentum indicators are giving a clear picture of a short-term upward bias. I would not be surprised if it hit $35 at some point next week.

Bad Saudi PR fuels riyal devaluation talk

Speculation that Saudi Arabia could devalue its currency may owe more to a poor public relations effort by Saudi authorities than to the economic pressures on the kingdom.
Riyadh has the tools available to protect itself as low oil prices push the current account and budget balances of the world's top crude exporter deep into deficit, senior bankers in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf said.
In private conversations with Reuters this week, the bankers - many of whom are in contact with Saudi authorities - said Riyadh may detail a strategy to cope with an era of cheap oil as soon as next month, when the finance ministry presents the 2016 budget plan. The prospect of a riyal devaluation remains far-fetched, they said.  (more)

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Straight Path Communications Inc (NYSEMKT: STRP)





Straight Path Communications Inc (NYSEMKT:STRP) is showing signs of bottoming out on the charts along with the MACD giving positive signals. The stock has just broke a potential falling wedge pattern which is usually bullish. A move past 10.44 could see a bounce till 12.50