Avon Products, Inc. (NYSE: AVP)

Avon Products, Inc. manufactures and markets beauty and related products worldwide. It offers beauty products, such as skincare, and personal care products, as well as fragrances and color cosmetics; and fashion and home products consisting of jewelry, watches, apparel, footwear, accessories, gift and decorative products, housewares, entertainment and leisure products, children’s products, and nutritional products. The company markets its products through direct selling and independent representatives.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Avon (NYSE: AVP) below with the added notations:

AVP has been declining persistently over the course of the past year. In addition, the $7 price level (red) has become very important to the stock starting from the beginning of 2015. Not only was $7 a key support back in January and March, but that level has also been resistance once AVP fell below it.

The Tale of the Tape: AVP has a key level at $7. A trader could enter a long position on a break above $7 with a stop placed under the level. However, if traders are bearish on the stock, a short trade could be made instead at the $7 resistance.

Is Amazon $AMZN About To Collapse?

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) — Shares of this online retailing giant were up as much as 87% at their year-to-date high in late July as fund managers and traders were forced to chase after the few believable single-stock growth stories out there.

But the most recent rally in AMZN stock, which came after the company’s better-than-expected earnings report, looks to have exhausted the bulls and could now offer active investors and traders a short-side trade to profit from a mean-reversion move to the downside. (more)

Gold At A Crossroads $HUI

Gold has had a nice run off the Chinese yuan devaluation news with short covering the dominant reason behind the buying.
Markets that have a decent sized speculative short position are always subject to bouts of sharp price rises as shorts scurry for cover. The question is not whether or not shorts are covering – they are. The question is, “Are there large numbers of specs who are willing and eager to assume NEW LONG positions?”
For without that, the rally has no staying power but will fizzle out once the weaker-handed shorts are run out.  (more)

Forget Hindenburg Omen and Death Cross – This Alarming Event Just Happened for the 5th Time in History and the Other Four Times the Stock Market Collapsed More Than 33%

from King World News
Forget the “Hindenburg Omen” and “Death Cross,” because today King World News is sharing a powerful piece that warns we have just seen an event that has only happened 4 other times in history, and each time the stock market has proceeded to collapse by more than 33 percent. This piece also includes 2 illustrations that all KWN readers around the world must see.
By Jason Goepfert Founder & CEO Of SentimenTrader
August 12 (King World News) – “The hits just keep on coming for stocks, at least according to some scary headlines. First it was odd breadth divergences, now a death cross. Such headlines usually aren’t worth following up on, but they do highlight a true concern with recent market activity.
Continue Reading at KingWorldNews.com…

Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) Is A Sell

Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG), a market favorite for the past few years, looks ready to tumble.

From a fundamental perspective, we have to wonder why restaurant fortunes in general have not improved in recent months. Over the winter, the unusually cold weather was blamed. But as the days got warmer, sales did not heat up. And even as gasoline prices plummeted diners did not open their wallets any wider.

On the sentiment front, poor action on good news is bearish. When things go wrong when there is every reason for them to go right we know that something deeper is going on in the market in question.  (more)

Corn Traders Just Got Crushed

Corn (and soybeans) are plunging, limit down on CBOT following data from the August WASDE report. The USDA unexpectedly raised output estimates for corn stocks and production dramatically higher than expected. This in and of itself would send corn prices lower but the significance of the shift is likely exaggerated by the fact that satellite imagery had suggested signficantly worse crop conditions ahead. One wonders who will be right?

from WASDE:

• Corn end stocks: 1727MM, Exp. 1427MM, Last 1599MM
• Corn production: 13686MM, Exp. 13323MM, Last 13530MM

Which sent the prices limit down...
But, as Bloomnberg reports, daily infrared images of U.S. farmland captured by satellite indicate worsening conditions for this year’s U.S. corn crop, according to one data-analysis company.  (more)

Own THE Long Bond $TLT, $TMF

• Several weeks after recommending a core long in 10-year and 30-year Treasuries in front of 2.40% and 3.25% respectively, I endorsed adding to those positions in my July 17^th note “Bonds are Back”. Today, I would again add to those positions. I believe 10’s will take out 2.00% by the end of September and test the year’s low when it breaks below 1.75% before the end of the year (10’s/30’s curve will flatten further). Long Treasury yields are driven by expectations of global growth and inflation which I expect will both stay on a downward trajectory for the remainder of the year regardless of what the Fed does. (I also expect USD strength, commodity weakness, widening credit spreads, and an equity sell-off.)

The Fed is in a Bind

• The intention of Fed policy over the past 30 years has been to self-correct business cycles into a ‘steadier state’ by easing interest rates into weakness and hiking them into strength. Unfortunately, there is political-asymmetry between easing and hiking which has resulted in the stair-stepping of official interest rates down to the zero lower bound.
(more)