Monday, June 8, 2015

US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period ACTUAL CONSENSUS
forecast
previous
MONDAY, JUNE 8
~10 am Labor market conditions index May   -- -1.9
TUESDAY,  JUNE 9
9 am NFIB small business index May   -- 96.9
10 am Job openings April   -- 5.0 mln
10 am Wholesale inventories April   -- 0.1%
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 10
2 pm Federal budget May   -- -$130 bln
THURSDAY, JUNE 11
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims May 30
N/A N/A
8:30 am Retail sales May   1.0% 0.0%
8:30 am Retail sales ex-autos May   0.9% 0.1%
8:30 am Import price index May   -- -0.3%
10 am Business inventories April   0.1% 0.1%
FRIDAY, JUNE 12
8:30 am Producer price index May
0.6% -0.4%
10 am  Consumer sentiment June   90.0 90.7
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Saturday, June 6, 2015

Electronic Trading vs Humans. David Gurwitz at Charles Nenner Research



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US Stock Markets Carefully Stepping Downwards. Mike Swanson



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Penn National Gaming, Inc (NASDAQ: PENN)

Penn National Gaming, Inc. owns and operates gaming and pari-mutuel properties. It operates through East/Midwest, West, and Southern Plains segments. The company is involved in gaming and racing operations. As of December 31, 2014, it operated 26 facilities in 17 jurisdictions, including Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, West Virginia, and Ontario.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Penn (NASDAQ: PENN) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of Penn (NASDAQ: PENN)
PENN has formed a clear resistance at $17 (red) over the last 4 months. In addition, the stock has been climbing a trend line of support (green) since the middle of December. These two levels combined had PENN stuck within a common chart pattern known as an ascending triangle. Eventually, the stock will have to break one of those levels.

The Tale of the Tape: PENN is trading within an ascending triangle. A long trade could be made at the trendline support or on a break above $17. A break below trendline would be an opportunity to enter a short trade.
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Chart of the Day - Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR)

The Chart of the Day belongs to Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR).  I found the stock by sorting the All Time High list for the stocks with the best technical buy signals then used the Flipchart feature to find the chart I liked.  Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 4/22 the stock gained 8.96%.

Interactive Brokers Group is an automated global electronic market maker and broker specializing in routing orders and executing and processing trades in securities, futures and foreign exchange instruments on more than 70 electronic exchanges and trading venues around the world. As a market maker, they provide liquidity at these marketplaces and, as a broker, they provide professional traders and investors with direct access to stocks, options, futures, forex and bonds from a single IB Universal AccountSM.

Technical indicators:
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 9 new highs and up 8.42% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 76.71%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 3612
  • Recently traded at 37.73 with a 50 day moving average of 34.55
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $2.21 billion
  • P/E 174.33
  • Dividend yield 1.09%
  • Revenue expected to grow 13.00% this year and another 28.20% next year
  • Earnings estimated to increase 41.20% this year, an additional 102.80% next year and continue to compound at an annual rate of 10.00% for the next 10 years
  • Wall Street analysts issued 2 buy and 2 hold recommendations on the stock (note that most Wall Street firms do not like to make reports on other Wall Street firms)
The 50-100 Day MACD Oscillator has been a reliable technical trading strategy to use n this stock.
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Friday, June 5, 2015

Brazil iShares Fund (EWZ): A Second Chance to Profit on Brazil

If you want to profit from the falling dollar, look no further than Brazil...
 
On Tuesday, I explained that the dollar bounce is about to end. After rallying for the past two weeks, the dollar is now overbought... and ready to resume the downtrend it started in March.
 
And just like in April, one of the simplest ways to take advantage is by buying Brazil...
 
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Kythera Biopharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: KYTH)

Kythera Biopharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of prescription products for the aesthetic medicine market in the United States and internationally. Its product candidate ATX-101, is an injectable drug in late-stage clinical development for the reduction of submental fat. The company also maintains research interest in hair and fat biology, pigmentation modulation, and facial contouring. It has a collaboration arrangement with Bayer Consumer Care AG and a related collaboration agreement with Bayer Consumer Care AG’s affiliate, Intendis GmbH to develop and commercialize ATX-101 outside the United States and Canada.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Kythera (NASDAQ: KYTH) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of Kythera (NASDAQ: KYTH)
KYTH rallied from October up until its March peak. From there, the stock has traded mostly sideways, with the exception of the May dip. Over the course of that sideways move KYTH has created an obvious resistance at that $52 level (red). A break above $52 should mean higher prices for the stock.

The Tale of the Tape: KYTH has a key level of resistance at $52. A long trade could be entered on a break through that level. However, if you are bearish on the stock, a short trade could be made on any rallies up to $52.
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