United Continental Holdings (NYSE: UAL): The Most Undervalued Stock In The Market?

Forty thousand-plus people flocked to Omaha, Neb., the first weekend of May for Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK-B) 50th-anniversary shareholder meeting.
Along with many of my peers, I always spend a good deal of time dissecting what Warren Buffett says at these annual meetings. And one of the things I gleaned from this year's event is that the Oracle of Omaha values stocks based on dynamic variables.
Buffett appeared on CNBC's "Squawk Box" the Monday after the meeting. When asked about whether stocks are overvalued, he told co-anchor Becky Quick that stocks look cheap as long as interest rates remain low. He added, "If interest rates normalize, we'll look back and say stocks weren't so cheap."  (more)

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Palladium: This precious metal has just gone “critical”

More signs this week that one metal may be a developing sleeper story. With tight supply and shifting market fundamentals coming together (quietly) to create a potential bull run.
That’s in palladium.
Platts reports that precious metals experts GFMS have just flagged a major supply shortage in the global palladium market. With the group estimating that this metal was in deficit by 1.58 million ounces in 2014.  (more)

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FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX)

FedEx Corporation provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services in the United States and internationally. The company’s FedEx Express segment provides various shipping services for the delivery of packages and freight; international trade services specializing in customs brokerage, and ocean and air freight forwarding services; international trade advisory services, such as assistance with the customs-trade partnership against terrorism program; and customs clearance services, as well as global trade data, an information tool that allows customers to track and manage imports. Its FedEx Ground segment provides business and residential money-back guaranteed ground package delivery services; and consolidates and delivers high volumes of low-weight and less time-sensitive business-to-consumer packages. The company’s FedEx Freight segment offers less-than-truckload freight services, as well as freight-shipping services. Its FedEx Services segment provides sales, marketing, information technology, communications, customer service, and other back-office support services.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of FedEx (NYSE: FDX) below with my added notations:

FDX had formed a clear resistance at $174 (red) over the last 2 months. In addition, the stock has been climbing a short-term, trend line of support (green) since the end of March. These two levels combined had FDX stuck within a common chart pattern known as an ascending triangle. Eventually, the stock had to break one of those levels, and on Friday it broke above the resistance.

The Tale of the Tape: FDX broke above its $175 resistance level. A long trade could be made at or near that level with a stop placed underneath it. A break back below the $175 level, and the trendline support, would be an opportunity to enter a short trade.
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Sell Elizabeth Arden (NASDAQ: RDEN)

Elizabeth Arden Score: 32

Beauty products company Elizabeth Arden (NASDAQ: RDEN) missed analysts' estimates by a country mile when it reported last week, posting a per-share loss of $0.86 versus a forecast of $0.47. Quarterly sales dropped 9% on weakness in its fragrance segment.

The chart also shows a company in trouble. Shares have broken support dating back to August's capitulation low, and with a score of 32, the odds favor continued selling.

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David Gurwitz of Charles Nenner Research: Gold Up Through the End of August

from Financial Survival Network
David Gurwitz of Charles Nenner Research Center joined us today.
Gold and silver are looking very good through the end of August. After that it’s uncertain and it could test new lows.
Nat Gas is looking strong the next year. Oil is uncertain. Dollar is looking weak.
More to come from David and Charles. Stay tuned.
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Sell TiVo (NASDAQ: TIVO)

TiVo Score: 34

TiVo (NASDAQ: TIVO), best known for its digital video recorders (DVRs), is having its lunch absolutely devoured by on-demand services from cable companies and video streaming services from Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Hulu.

On the chart, we see a large, irregular triple-top in place since 2013. If the neckline at $10.50 is broken, it would target a drop to $7. Given TiVo's paltry score of 34 on my metric, I think this is a likely scenario.


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The impact of the U.S. dollar

The 1st major corrective phase in almost 10 months for the U.S. dollar continues to unfold. With the US$ declining 7.5% since March, it has provided a boost for many global currencies and a much needed lift for commodity bulls.

The dollar's drop has escalated the Euro by almost 10%, lifted the British Pound by 8%, raised the Australian dollar by 6.6% and increased the value of the Canadian currency by 6.4%.

But the biggest impact of the recent U.S. dollar's pullback is on commodities.

The world's heaviest traded resource (Light crude oil) has rose a remarkable 44% since March, gold is up 6.5%, silver has advanced 13.7% and the S&P Industrial metals index (GYX) is up 9.9%.

And all since the start of the dollar's decline just 60 days ago.

But the current soft economics indicates the weakness in the dollar is likely not complete.

Weak retail sales data for April does not bode well for Q2 GDP. Also the large inventory build-up in Q1 GDP means that in Q2 we could see some of this inventory buildup drawn down resulting in lower growth.

The strength of the U.S. Dollar is importing deflation into the US and has pushed the headline Producer Price Index (PPI) lower to minus 1.3% which is the lowest we have ever seen.

US jobless claims are a bright spot in the U.S. economy falling a further to 264,000 which pushed the 4-week average to a 15 year low.

Bottom line: The weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data has been a boom for commodity markets.

The dollar's decline since March has lifted most natural resource prices off their bases.

We expect slightly more downside pressure for the US$ in the next few weeks and ultimately reaching the $0.90-$0.92 range.

Nevertheless, the long-term picture for the dollar continues to be bright. With many superior economic elements to other G8 countries and the promise of an interest rate increase in the second half of 2015, we believe there is additional upside for the greenback in the months to come.

Our long range target for the dollar remains at $1.20.
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