Friday, October 25, 2013

U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB)

U.S. Bancorp, a financial services holding company, provides a range of financial services in the United States. Its services include lending and depository services, cash management, capital market, and trust and investment management services. The company also engages in credit card services, merchant and ATM processing, mortgage banking, insurance, brokerage, and leasing. Its lending services include traditional credit products, as well as credit card services, leasing, financing and import/export trade, asset-backed lending, agricultural finance, and other products. The company's depository services comprise checking accounts, savings accounts, and time certificate contracts. It also offers ancillary services, such as capital market, treasury management, and receivable lock-box collection services to corporate customers; and a range of asset management and fiduciary services for individuals, estates, foundations, business corporations, and charitable organizations. In addition, the company provides Visa corporate and purchasing card services, and corporate trust services.
To review Bancorp's stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of USB (U.S. Bancorp) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of USB (U.S. Bancorp) USB has been trading mostly sideways for the last 3 or 4 months. Over that period of time, the stock has formed a resistance area around $37.50 (red), In addition, the stock has also created a strong level of support at $35.50 (blue). At some point the stock will have to break one of those two levels.

The Tale of the Tape: USB has identifiable levels of support and resistance. The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $35.50, or on a solid close above $37.50. The ideal short opportunities would be on a break below $35.50.
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“At A Record High Median Price To Sales Ratio” There Is “Nothing Worth Buying”

First on China:
Chinese policy makers are locked in the same old failed credit simulative policies as the west to keep growth going. Indeed, the Chinese GDP ship appears to be steaming ahead in Q3 at a very respectable 7.8% yoy rate. This is the big message the markets have consumed. But look at the ship closely from the front or rear and you can see the ship increasingly rocking violently from side to side while still making forward progress. And are those Chinese policy makers that can be seen manically running from one side in an attempt to keep the ship from foundering? This is a totally unsustainable situation in my view. But again, no-one is listening.
And next, the US:
Only the brave can react to what they see and leave the markets. The global macro looks an appalling mess and even more importantly, long-term equity investors can find nothing worth buying. For equity investors we are closer to 2007 than 2001 as the vast bulk of the equity market, as represented by the median PE, PB or Price/Sales, is expensive. The US median price/sales ratios is at a record high, indicating that there is practically nothing cheap in the equity market left to buy.
Dear Albert: our condolences; the reason no-one is listening is because a comic term we came up with, namely BT(M)FATH, has become a daily investment strategy. And as long as the Fed allows that kind of idiocy to continue, nobody will listen. Why should they?
(more)
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Alumina Ltd AWC: A $4 Stock Valued at $11

Another way to play aluminum might be through Alumina Ltd. (ADR) (NYSE: AWC).

Alumina owns 40% of the world's largest alumina business, Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals (AWAC), with Alcoa owning and managing the other 60%.

AWAC mines and refines bauxite and produces and markets alumina to smelters around the world. It's also the world's largest producer of alumina. Interestingly, AWAC is a low-cost producer, with many operations in the lower-cost quartiles.

To be sure, Alumina Ltd. is a riskier play on the sector than Alcoa. But it trades at about $4.00 per share right now, below its book value of around $4.25 per share. And Morningstar's fair-value estimate is $11.  (more)

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Thursday, October 24, 2013

The Only Number You Need to Time – and Beat – the Market

It certainly seems as though the political gamesmanship that rules Washington, D.C., also rules the markets. But this isn't really the case.
In fact, there's one single "magic" number that far outweighs everything else when it comes to long-term influence.
This number's predictive power has saved me from some of the steepest market drops of the century, and it's given me everything I need to position myself for maximum gains in bull markets.
And the best part is, it's widely available - access to it costs nothing.
It's how you use this simple number that counts...(more)

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This 'Hated' Sector Offers Great Yields and Catalysts Galore:BBEP, LRE, QRE

When is the best time to focus on a particular industry? When it's deeply out of favor.
Every industry hits the occasional rough patch, which typically leads investors to focus their attention elsewhere. Yet when the rough patch ends, and the skies start to brighten, you have a chance to dig into the group before the crowd returns.

That's precisely the set up in place for a group of companies known as upstream MLPs. These master limited partnerships focus on mature energy fields. These firms don't focus on the early stage of energy exploration, and instead buy mature oil and gas fields that other firms have chosen to sell.

It's an industry known for a lot of deals, as the key players boost sales and replace existing assets that eventually start to post declining output. Nearly $2.5 billion in transactions were completed in 2010, rising to $5.8 billion in 2012, according to Credit Suisse. And investors were expecting even higher amounts of deal-making in 2013 -- until Linn Energy (Nasdaq: LINE) spoiled the party.  (more)

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McAlvany Weekly Commentary

Wise Investing Eliminates the Time Question


About this week’s show:
-Dollar velocity at six decade lows
-T-bonds vulnerable to announcement from China
-Who? What? Where? Why? Forget the when
Read | Subscribe@iTunes
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A Great Inflation Is Coming That Will “Shock The World”

from King World News
Today a man who has lived in 18 countries around the world, and witnessed collapses in many of these countries firsthand, told King World News that the globe is now beginning to see some major warning signs that indicate a “Great Inflation” is coming that will “shock the world.” Keith Barron, who consults with major companies around the world and is responsible for one of the largest gold discoveries in the last quarter century, also spoke about these incredible warning signs and what they mean for key markets such as gold.
Barron: “We are going to see destructive inflation creeping around everywhere. Household goods, groceries, medical costs, insurance, things like that are going to continue to surge in price. So, despite the propaganda, yes, inflation is happening in America and elsewhere….
Continue Reading at KingWorldNews.com…
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