Looking in Fort Knox for its Gold

theinternationalforecaster.com / By Alfred Adask / 

Ft. Knox Gold Gone? On Thursday’s radio show (Financial Survival, 4PM to 5PM East Coast time (dgscoins.com), I was reading from an article by Mr. Przemyslaw Radomski that explored the possibility that there’s no longer any gold in the U.S. depository at Ft. Knox:

•  ”An audit of the US gold holdings has  been demanded by some for years, but the government will not allow it.   The gold belongs to the American people, so why won’t they let us see  it?  Many think it is because it is no longer there.  If that is indeed  the case, do we not face a ‘financial Armageddon’?
“At first it may sound shocking, but the last audit of gold stored in Fort Knox took place in 1953. No typo here, 1953, just after U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower took office. [However,] No outside experts were allowed [during that audit] and the audit team tested only about 5% of gold hoarded in the fort. So, there hasn’t been a comprehensive audit of Fort Knox in over 60 (!!!) years.”

•  ”Congressman John R. Rarick demanded a Congressional investigation and, on September 23, 1974 six Congressmen, one Senator and the press were allowed to enter Fort Knox to see for themselves if the gold was there or not.  The tour showed that there was gold in Fort Knox but, all the same, it sparked even more controversies.
“Only a fraction of the gold reserves were available to see. A photo of one Congressman published by Associated Press suggested that gold bars held in the fort may have been less heavy than would be usually expected.  This resulted in even more doubt about the fineness of gold in Fort Knox. . . . [This is]  important if you consider that counterfeit ‘gold bars’ have been showing up in New York recently and that fake gold bars turned up in LBMA Approved Vaults in Hong Kong.”

•  ”In 2012, the German federal court ordered that the German central bank, Bundesbank, conduct an audit of German gold reserves stored abroad, particularly in the U.S., U.K. and in France. The German authorities have never before conducted a comprehensive audit of their foreign gold reserves and the last time they were [even] able to see their gold stored in the New York Federal Reserve vaults was supposedly in 1979/80. Because of that, 150 tons of gold will be shipped from the U.S. to Germany to assess the fineness of the bars.”
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Chart of the Day - Burger King Worldwide (BKW)

The "Chart of the Day" is Burger King Worldwide (BKW), which showed up on Thursday's "All-Time High" list. Burger King posted an all-time Thursday at $18.04 and closed up +1.69%. TrendSpotter has been long since Dec 13 at $17.12. In recent news on the stock, PepsiCo announced on Thursday that it had formed a partnership with Burger King in China to make Pepsi the exclusive supplier of soft drinks for more than 100 Burger King restaurants in the Asian country, according to China Daily. On Dec 27, Burger King announced that it has entered into a multi-country, Master Franchise Joint Venture Agreement with BEBOCA LTD in Central America. The new joint venture will acquire the master franchise rights for the 178 Burger King restaurants in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama and has committed to manage the aggressive development of the Burger King® brand in these countries. Burger King Worldwide, with a market cap of $6.211 billion, operates fast food hamburger chains throughout the world.


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Gold, Miners and SP500 Trends & Trading Signals

Gold and gold miner stocks have underperformed in 2012 disappointing most traders. That being said it has traded in a large sideways range since September 2011 and remains stuck in this range as of this week. Investments trading sideways are not my preferred investment of choice because some commodities and stocks for that matter can trade sideways for years before making another bull market rally.
That being said in the last six months gold has started to show life that a new bull market may be starting. 2013 is starting to look as though gold, silver and precious metals miners could lead the market higher if they can break out of their basing patterns. Until we get more bullish price action I am not planning to get long.

Take a look at the gold ETF and Gold Miner charts:

These daily charts show the trend (up/down) along with short term extreme overbought/oversold trading days. The key to long term success is to trade with the trend 90% of the time. Only years of experience will you know when it's ok to break the rules and even then the odds are stacked against you.

Gold Weekly Chart:

Gold Daily Chart:

Gold Miners Daily Chart:

SP500 Stock Market Analysis:

The last five years I have been fine tuning my SP500 index trading with the use of cycles, sentiment, volume, momentum and the volatility index. Until just recently some of the data I use for generating these extreme overbought/oversold conditions were only available after the market closed. This made the high volatile trading sessions difficult to truly know if an extreme level was reached during the trading session. The exciting news is that a new data feed and a top notch programmer is allowing me to turning this once manual calculation of 17 data points taking me an average of 25 minutes to figure out into a system that generates signals in real time complete with profit taking signals, tend direction and a protective stop which self-adjusts depending on the market volatility and cycle stages.
Two other benefits are that during extremely high volatility levels and mixed cycles the system does not generate any signals. This allows us to avoid the large daily swings in price that typically shake even the most seasoned traders out of the market for repeated losing trades. Also during potential trend changes when cycles and volatility become choppy trading signals are not generated helping to avoid the volatility that takes place during reversals points when the bulls and bears are pushing each other around.
Below is a very basic version of the trend and signals for the SP500 index as it does not show profit taking, trend reversal stops or protective stops for individual swing trades yet, but it's coming soon.

Crude Oil Weekly Chart:

Crude oil has been making a move higher in the past four weeks but it's now testing resistance and the chart shows a high volume doji candle. This is pointing to a pause or pullback in price should take place.

Natural Gas Weekly Chart:

Natural gas futures have been under pressure the past couple months but it may have put in a bottom last week. The daily and 60 minute charts show strong buyers stepping in here.

Weekend Trading Conclusion:

In short, gold and silver remain in a sideways/down trend on the daily chart. The weekly long term outlook is very bullish and once I start to see real buyers enter the market in terms of volume and price patterns I will start to accumulate a long position.
The stock market overall remains in an uptrend. We are waiting for a pause or pullback before getting long the index. But that being said there are other sectors and commodities starting to look ripe for big moves. They are not there yet but getting closer each day.
Keep in mind that stocks, commodities and trading in general go in waves. There are times when you are busy with trades popping up left right and center and there are times when setups just do not happen. On my free stock charts watch list in November and December I posted 16 stocks and ETF setups and only one stock went south which happened to be a short trade (count trend trade).
Crude oil is giving mixed signals and I am avoiding it until the daily chart gives us a bullish setup.
Natural gas weekly chart looks bullish but the current price is now trading at resistance. It must break this level before a full reversal can be confirmed.

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My Favorite Retail Stock to Own for the Long Term

Everyone knows fashion retailing is a cyclical business. The better the economy is, the more consumers spend. Conversely, when the economy is weak, people tend to stay at home and keep their purse strings tied tight. As a result, when it looks an economic rough patch is on the horizon, investors steer clear of retailers that sell anything but the basic necessities of life. After all, looking good isn't quite as important during tough times.

But there's just one problem with that strategy: Sometimes that mindset doesn't quite work to investors' advantage. Right now, for example, there's one retailer that's managed to grow its top and bottom line for years now, no matter what kind of economic environment.

Better yet, the stock has shrugging off bear markets on its way to becoming one of top-performing stocks for the past 10 years, rising more than 650%. And the next several years don't look like they're going to be any different.

Amazing stats
The Buckle (NYSE: BKE) is a small-cap retailer made up of more than 400 stores selling competitively-priced casual apparel, footwear and accessories for young men and women. But this description doesn't do the stock justice. A few key statistics and figures paint the true picture.
The company has had 10 straight years of rising revenue, from $401 million in 2003 to $1.06 billion in fiscal 2012. (Even when the recession was hitting other retailers in 2008, The Buckle kept chugging.)
Profits have also been rising for 10 straight years, from $32 million in 2003 to $151.5 million in fiscal 2012. The fact that the company didn't have to slash prices and crimp margins when things got rough during the Great Recession underscores just how in touch The Buckle is with consumer demand, walking that fine line between "needs" and "wants."

Net margin growth in eight of the past 10 years -- from 8% in 2003 to 14.2% in fiscal 2012 -- is just as impressive. This is because, for many retailers, expansion comes at the expense of margins. For The Buckle, however, growth has scaled quite nicely, as it has actually achieved an economy of scale.
These are phenomenal stats, not just for retailing, but for any kind of business. Take a look at the chart below...

What gives?
The growth streak almost seems too good to be true, prodding cautious investors to wonder whether such a track record is truly sustainable. Well, it is sustainable, because The Buckle has managed to do a handful of things consistently, which most other retail companies never even come close to doing. (more)

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The Most Important Investment Chart of the Past Decade

The biggest investment story of the past decade is that stocks went nowhere. The S&P 500  (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC  )  is lower today than it was in 2000. Dividends provided some return, but inflation eroded it out. It has been a dreadful decade for stocks.

But this chart might be the best rebuttal to the "lost decade" argument, and perhaps the most important chart of the past decade:

Source: S&P Capital IQ.

What we're looking at here is:

• The traditional S&P 500 (blue line).
• The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, which owns the same 500 companies as the traditional S&P, but holds them in equal amounts. That's different from the traditional index, which weights companies by market cap, owning more of the largest companies and less of smaller ones.

Unlike the traditional S&P 500, the Equal Weight Index is at an all-time high. It's more than doubled since 2000, providing investors with a solid return.  (more)

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Cramer's Six in 60: 'Don't Underestimate Big Pharma'

 

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The Best Countries to Retire to in 2013

Planning to retire abroad? Ecuador is the top spot for North American retirees, according to InternationalLiving.com’s newly-released Annual Global Retirement Index 2013.

This is Ecuador's fifth consecutive year at the top of the heap.
This annual Index—now in its 22^nd year--ranks the best international retirement destinations. To compile the ranking, InternationalLiving.com editors collated data from its team of experts on the ground in the most popular countries among U.S. and Canadian expat retirees. Editors assessed factors ranging from the price of groceries and average temperature, to utility costs and the friendliness of locals.
The information was then used to score each of the top countries out of 100 in categories such as “Real Estate,” “Climate,” “Special Benefits for Retirees” and “Health Care.

“It’s designed to help readers compare and contrast what we believe are the best options for retirement abroad in 2013,” says Jennifer Stevens, Executive Editor of International Living magazine.
“Ecuador is such an overwhelmingly attractive choice for retirees overseas today in part because your dollars really stretch there,” Stevens says. “You could live comfortably for $1,600 a month, rent included. The values extend to real estate, as well. A condo right on the coast that might cost you $1 million or more in California, you could have for less than $150,000 along Ecuador’s northern Pacific. We have readers who bought a little mountain place as well as an apartment overlooking the water and split their time between the two. They could never have afforded to do something like that in the States.”  (more)

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