Wednesday, June 20, 2012
Is McDonald's Stock Now a Buy?
What a difference five months can make. Back in January, McDonald's (NYSE: MCD [1]) was trading at $102, thanks to 2011's strong 34% rally, and more and more investors were excited to step into what looked like a well-established ride up.
Looks can be deceiving...
Not only did the rally not continue, but as of two weeks ago, shares [2] of the world's biggest restaurant chain have actually lost 11% of their January peak, with no apparent floor in sight.
What happened to McDonald's to merit such a reversal of fortune for shareholders? That's just it -- nothing really happened to the company. The stock simply took on a life of its own.
For investors who understand that a stock's price can sometimes disconnect from the company's actual performance, these wild swings can represent outstanding entry and exit opportunities.
In fact, that window of opportunity is open right now. (more)
Citi’s Fitzpatrick – Despite Rally, Crisis To Get Even Worse
Today top Citibank analyst, Tom Fitzpatrick, warned that, despite the rally, if Europe does not take decisive action we will see this crisis accelerate. Fitzpatrick, a 28 year veteran and top analyst at Citibank, which has $1.3 trillion in assets, also said, “the concern levels are still there, and if anything they are becoming elevated.” Fitzpatrick also provided some excellent charts which illustrate the ongoing train wreck that is Europe. Here is what he had to say about the deteriorating situation in Europe: “Overall we continue to push higher, both in terms of Spanish yields and in terms of the interest differential we are seeing between Spain and Germany, which has to be an increasing concern.”
A Rare Buy Signal on U.S. Stocks
There are lots of reasons to be bearish right now. But one of my favorite trading indicators says it's time to buy.
The New York Stock Exchange Summation Index (NYSI) is an intermediate-term measure of overbought and oversold conditions. Stocks are "officially" overbought when the NYSI rallies above 1,000. And they're oversold when it drops below zero. The indicator triggers a buy signal when the MACD momentum indicator (the bottom box) extended below -200 and then turns higher.
We've only had four buy signals over the past three years. NYSI pegged the exact bottom of the market twice. In the other two cases, stocks drifted slightly lower for a couple more weeks before starting to rally. Six months after each of these buy signals, stocks were between 18% and 50% higher.
As you can see in the chart below, we're on the brink of another buy signal today. There's no telling for sure what we'll get this time around. But based on this NYSI buy signal, it's a good time to buy stocks on weakness.
You can follow this trade with my on my Direct Line blog, where I provide real-time market commentary to subscribers of the S&A Short Report newsletter. To learn more about a subscription to the S&A Short Report and to get access to the Direct Line, click here.
The New York Stock Exchange Summation Index (NYSI) is an intermediate-term measure of overbought and oversold conditions. Stocks are "officially" overbought when the NYSI rallies above 1,000. And they're oversold when it drops below zero. The indicator triggers a buy signal when the MACD momentum indicator (the bottom box) extended below -200 and then turns higher.
We've only had four buy signals over the past three years. NYSI pegged the exact bottom of the market twice. In the other two cases, stocks drifted slightly lower for a couple more weeks before starting to rally. Six months after each of these buy signals, stocks were between 18% and 50% higher.
As you can see in the chart below, we're on the brink of another buy signal today. There's no telling for sure what we'll get this time around. But based on this NYSI buy signal, it's a good time to buy stocks on weakness.
You can follow this trade with my on my Direct Line blog, where I provide real-time market commentary to subscribers of the S&A Short Report newsletter. To learn more about a subscription to the S&A Short Report and to get access to the Direct Line, click here.
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
Alert From International Banker
Steve tell your listeners to ignore ETFs and continue buying Physical SILVER and GOLD no matter what "spot price" is. Please tell them to take cash out NOW!!!! Only keep in bank what you can afford to lose and what you need to pay bills and expenses. Please tell them to get money out NOW!!! They have till December the latest to do so. Be mindful it CAN HAPPEN SOONER. Prices of Metals without manipulation $1000 SILVER $5000 GOLD---Steve Great show Im listening to you right now.
Here is the latest truth on Spain. The bailout already happened by stealth from very reliable sources. My sources are never wrong. The Bank holiday is going to spill over to Spain, Portugal and France. The Flight to safe harbor now is the UK. From there you will see flights to the US dollar. The main players have moved to Gold. Watch for another shock to SLV and GLD market. This will cause shaky uncommitted hands to dump more SLV and GLD physical. ETF markets will take massive hit.
Germany will start to have massive upheaval as their banks Duetche Bank in particular is over exposed to Spanish Flue, solvency crunch will hit Germany, look for Germans to go mad over the fact they can not have access to their funds. (more)
This Mobile Advertising Stock Could Jump 40%
Mobile devices have become like extensions of us. Through smartphones, we can instantly connect to the world, no matter where we are or what we're doing.
Perhaps not surprisingly, we spend about 10% of our time on our mobile devices, according to a 2010 study conducted by eMarketer. By the end of 2012, industry analysts expect the time we spend on our phones and tablets will double, or even triple from those levels.
Yet, in 2010, the amount spent advertising on mobile devices accounted for just 0.9% of all total ad dollars.
This picture is quickly changing, however. Advertising targeted for mobile devices -- known as mobile advertising -- is now the most rapidly growing segment of the ad industry!
According to research by the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) and Strategy Analytics, a firm which tracks industry data, spending on mobile ads topped over $5.3 billion last year. By the end of 2012, it's expected to more than double from those levels, becoming a $11.6 billion industry. (more)
Perhaps not surprisingly, we spend about 10% of our time on our mobile devices, according to a 2010 study conducted by eMarketer. By the end of 2012, industry analysts expect the time we spend on our phones and tablets will double, or even triple from those levels.
Yet, in 2010, the amount spent advertising on mobile devices accounted for just 0.9% of all total ad dollars.
This picture is quickly changing, however. Advertising targeted for mobile devices -- known as mobile advertising -- is now the most rapidly growing segment of the ad industry!
According to research by the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) and Strategy Analytics, a firm which tracks industry data, spending on mobile ads topped over $5.3 billion last year. By the end of 2012, it's expected to more than double from those levels, becoming a $11.6 billion industry. (more)
Three Charts Your Stockbroker Won’t Want You To See
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / June 18, 2012
While every long-only manager and jobbing stockbroker is hard at work twisting the simple logic of ‘but, but Central Banks will print and save the world’ into a much more appetizing ‘US decoupling, cleanest-shirt, ignore Europe, earnings, profits, money-on-the-sidelines’ euphemism, we note that the following three charts from UBS suggest that things are not quite as rosy as one might believe – whether or not Ben speaks monetarily this week. Between consensus growth expectations rolling over, the analyst upgrade/downgrade ratio turning negative once again, and recent changes in US growth remain positively ecstatic relative to global/regional changes; it would appear hope is a powerful (and hallucinatory) drug (as is QE kool-aid).
The progression of consensus earnings growth estimates is rolling over for 2012 and stalling for 2013…
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)