TransCanada hugging 50-day moving average; could hit $50-plus

TransCanada Corporation (NYSE:TRP) — This energy infrastructure company focuses mainly on natural gas and oil pipelines. It is the primary developer and manager of the Keystone pipeline system, and it also manages non-regulated facilities in Alberta, Canada.

In January, the U.S. State Department rejected TRP’s application to build Keystone XL, which would carry heavy crude from the Alberta oil sands and Bakken Shale to Gulf of Mexico refiners. President Obama did approve the southern half of the line from Cushing, Okla., to the Gulf of Mexico, saving months of delays. And the pressure to construct more lines is high since the incoming/outgoing imbalance of crude at the Cushing center has become critical.

Earnings for 2012 and 2013 are expected to be $2.35 and $2.70, respectively, but would improve significantly if the overall Keystone XL project is approved.

Technically the stock is in a bull channel with prices hugging the 50-day moving average. TRP’s overall price objective is $50-plus, depending on the political swings in the fall, and the stock pays a dividend of $1.76 (4% annual yield). Buy TRP at market.

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Chart of the Day - Novo Nordisk (NVO)

The "Chart of the Day" is Novo Nordisk (NVO), which showed up on Tuesday's Barchart "All-Time High" list. Novo Nordisk on Tuesday posted a new all-time high of $151.55 and closed up 1.55%. TrendSpotter in late March took a profit on a 2-month long position and just turned long again on April 2 at $145.77. In recent news on the stock, Barron's on Jan 25 ran a story that highlighted five drugs that could boost the fortunes of their drugmakers, one of which was Novo Nordisk's diabetes drug Degludec. However, Deutchebank on April 4 downgraded Novo Nordisk to Sell from Hold citing valuation concerns and pessimism about the sales prospects for the company's Victoza obesity drug. Novo Nordisk, with a market cap of $84 billion, is a world leader in insulin and diabetes care and also manufactures and markets a variety of other pharmaceutical products. Furthermore the company is the world's largest producer of industrial enzyme products. The company is based in Denmark.

How Far Will Apple Fall?

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) – This is a household name, and when the stock falls it makes worldwide headlines. AAPL had broken from a sideways trend in late January at around $427 to $430, and ran to a high of almost $644 early this month. It was a huge move for this triple-digit-priced stock, but many said that the earnings justified a price of $1,000 or more.

Credit Suisse has a target of $750 and S&P is at $800. But after five successive days of profit- taking, those numbers look to be a long way off. In truth, the stock has moved too far and too fast even for a stock that S&P expects for a 40% growth rate in FY 2011 and 45% in FY 2012.

Simple profit-taking appears to be the reason for the stock’s recent decline. The question then for both traders and long-term investors is, “Where should I expect to be able to buy Apple?”

Its chart gives a hint as to how low it might go, but this is a volatile performer and buyers would be wise to put in open (GTC) orders if they plan to purchase it. The Fibonacci numbers calculated from the breakout in January show that a 33.3% retracement would occur at $570 and a 50% retracement is at $535.

In between is the 50-day moving average at $559 — a price that traders will no doubt hop on just to grab a few points from a bounce. Long-term investors should plan to scale into the stock starting with a third at $570, then a third at $560, and a third at $535.

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Housing: New Bubble or More Trouble?

The in-laws own a gas station in Miami that they’ve wanted to sell for years. But they dithered when the market was hot and ended up being stuck with it when interest evaporated in 2009.

Lately, though, the phone has begun to ring again. It’s not exactly a feeding frenzy but real offers are coming from legitimate buyers for the first time in three years.

That’s actually a pretty good description of real estate in general, where low interest rates have convinced a growing number of people that it’s time to buy. See this upbeat story on the home builders:

Pulte, Lennar jump as survey shows housing rebound
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Shares of U.S. homebuilders rallied on Wednesday after a Wells Fargo analyst’s research report said data from 20 select markets nationwide are showing strength across the board.

“For the third consecutive month, our survey points to an improvement in orders suggesting 2012 may be the long-awaited recovery year for housing,” the note said.

PulteGroup PHM -1.39% added more than 8%, Lennar Corp. LEN -1.47% gained 5%, D.R. Horton DHI -2.44% rose 4.2% and Toll Bros. TOL -0.86% gained 3.8%.

The bellwether industry ETF, the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index Fund ITB rose 3.4%. (more)

John Williams – Real Earnings Collapse, Nearly 50% Below 1973

from KingWorldNews:

John Williams, of Shadowstats, has warned that real earnings continue to literally collapse. Also note that the above graph illustrates consumer sentiment still remains below the 2003 market crash levels. Williams’ graphs are excellent depictions of what a collapsed economy truly looks like. They also show why the middle class in the Western world continues to be destroyed. Williams also shocked KWN with his graph showing real earnings tumbling, now nearly 50% below 1973. Here is what Williams had to say: “The latest consumer earnings and credit numbers show ongoing structural deterioration in consumer liquidity. With lack of positive, real (inflation-adjusted) growth in income, there can be no sustainable growth in real personal consumption (71% of GDP).”

John Williams continues @ KingWorldNews.com

Jay Taylor: Turning Hard Times Into Good Times

4/17/2012: Can Nature Punish the Bad Guys?

Doctor Copper Becomes Doctor Plopper

From Graceland Updates / By Stewart Thomson / Tuesday, 17 April 2012

1. What economic phenomenon is most worrisome to Dr. Ben Bernanke? To view a picture of the answer, please click here now.

2. A higher oil price is Dr. Bernanke’s biggest fear, and I believe a new move higher is beginning right now.

3. David “SuperDave” Greenlaw is Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. fixed income strategist. A number of Morgan Stanley’s top economists, including SuperDave, have issued substantial warnings that the American economy faces what they term a “fiscal cliff” in 2013.

4. There is talk of dividend tax hikes, the end of the Bush tax cut extensions, and it’s conceivable that both individuals and American corporations could enter the year 2013 with no idea what their tax rates will be for the year.

5. How much fiscal tightening are you facing in 2013? Well, Dave argues that the total amount of fiscal tightening will not be the “3.5% of GDP” number bandied about by many respected economists and by the congressional budget office.

6. He feels the American economy is facing a 5% hammer that will send America back into recession in 2013.

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