Stephen Schork of The Schork Report and Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors discuss the outlook for oil and gold. Schork expects higher oil prices to lead to higher gasoline prices this summer that could hamper the recovery. Holmes says we are only half way through the gold rally and prices are headed to $2,300.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
The Economist – 19 February 2011
The Economist is a global weekly magazine written for those who share an uncommon interest in being well and broadly informed. Each issue explores the close links between domestic and international issues, business, politics, finance, current affairs, science, technology and the arts.
read it here
Birinyi: Stocks May Double by End of 2013
By Dan Weil
Investment guru Laszlo Birinyi says stocks may double within the next 2½ years. At a minimum, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will gain 31 percent by September 2013, he tells CNBC. That would mean a move to at least 1,744 from 1,331 currently.
“There was an extraordinary start to this bull market, and when you have starts similar to this, you end up with some very substantial moves,” says Birinyi, president of Birinyi Associates. “We’re out there and very comfortable being bullish.”
The S&P has nearly doubled from its March 2009 low (667), though it remains down 16 percent from its October 2007 high (1,576).
Birinyi’s forecasts are based on technical indicators.
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| Laszlo Birinyi |
Birinyi recommends buying Exxon Mobil, Prudhoe Bay, Ralph Lauren, Priceline, Cummins and Hermes.
Others are bullish on stocks too.
“The economy appears to be strengthening, the momentum seems to be shifting, rates are trending higher, and riskier assets like stocks are gaining traction,” Kevin Giddis, executive managing director at Morgan Keegan tells Marketwatch.
“How long this all will last is anyone’s guess, but the facts are facts, and this story is becoming a compelling one.”
As Speculative Bullish Bets Surge, Is Rice The Next Silver (And Manipulated In Kind?)
When we reported on last week's net spec contract position per the CFTC, we noted that speculators are expecting a roughly 50% hike in the price of rice based on comparable historical patterns. Updating for this week's data confirms that the upside price bets, which increased from 6,652 to 7,114 have just surged above the previous top hit in late 2009, of 6,773. Yet they are still just shy of the all time highs from February 2008 when they stood at 7,883. As the spec activity in rice predates major price moves rather efficiently, the continued bets on a price surge mean something is bound to snap. And with rice prices continuing to be rather sticky, considering the move in all other grains, we may be in for a very major break out in the coming week. Or not: as we have now learned the hard way, the banking cartel has way to keep commodity prices low, until explosive break outs confirm that one can only manipulate a price down for so long. With recent disclosures by Wikileaks that China had been imposing pressure on the Treasury and the US banking system to get what it wants, is it too surprising to assume that just as JPM has long been manipulating the price of silver, so Chinese interests in the US (remember - quid pro quo in a M.A.D. world) have been instructed to keep the price of Rough Rice as low for as long as possible. If that is the case, are the Rice vigilantes about to call the Chinese bluff? If rice succeeds in breaking out from its $13-$16 trading range, the move to the upside could make the recent doubling in cotton, and surges in corn and wheat seem like child's play.
47 Statistics That Indicate That Economic Stress Points In 2011 Could Be Setting The Stage For A Global Economic Meltdown In 2012
Is the world approaching a devastating global economic meltdown? Right now there are a large number of factors that are creating economic stress points all over the globe. All of the crazy money printing that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have been doing is putting inflationary pressure on agricultural commodities, oil and precious metals. Massive floods, horrific droughts and extreme weather patterns all over the globe are ruining crops and creating food shortages. Some nations are now actually hoarding food, and in other nations rising prices have sparked food riots. The price of oil has been moving back towards $100 a barrel, and if it stays at a high level for an extended period of time that is going to have very serious consequences for the global economy. In addition, the growing sovereign debt crisis could erupt again at any time. Half a dozen nations in Europe are on the verge of insolvency, Japan's national debt is now well over 200 percent of GDP, and the global financial system is growing increasingly concerned about the exploding national debt of the United States. The truth is that the entire world financial system is a house of cards balanced on a razor's edge and it could come down at any time.
Sadly, very little has changed since the world financial system experienced almost a complete meltdown back in 2008. Global financial markets are still a whirlpool of debt and speculation. One really bad week could put us right back where we were prior to the infamous Wall Street bailouts. Very little in our world is truly stable anymore. As we have seen recently in Egypt, the globe can literally change almost overnight. All it would take is for one really bad event to happen and world financial markets would instantly start imploding.
So when will the coming economic collapse happen? Nobody knows for sure, but the fact that the global economy is increasingly becoming less stable as we approach the year 2012 is making a lot of people very nervous.
The following are 47 statistics that indicate that economic stress points in 2011 could be setting the stage for a global economic meltdown in 2012....
#1 According to the United Nations, global food prices set a new all-time record during the month of January.
#2 In early February the worst freeze in 60 years wiped out entire crops all across the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. Already, it has been reported that some U.S. supermarkets have doubled or even tripled prices for certain produce items.
#3 It is being reported that due to the recent horrible freeze in Mexico cases of tomatoes that would usually cost shop owners between 12 and 15 dollars are now going for up to $40.
#4 One of China's key agricultural provinces is facing its worst drought in 200 years.
#5 The Food and Agriculture Organization says that up to two-thirds of China's wheat crop could be at risk of failing due to weather conditions.
Friday, February 18, 2011
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