Saturday, February 19, 2011
THE GOLD AND OIL OUTLOOK
The Economist – 19 February 2011

The Economist is a global weekly magazine written for those who share an uncommon interest in being well and broadly informed. Each issue explores the close links between domestic and international issues, business, politics, finance, current affairs, science, technology and the arts.
read it here
Birinyi: Stocks May Double by End of 2013
By Dan Weil
Investment guru Laszlo Birinyi says stocks may double within the next 2½ years. At a minimum, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will gain 31 percent by September 2013, he tells CNBC. That would mean a move to at least 1,744 from 1,331 currently.
“There was an extraordinary start to this bull market, and when you have starts similar to this, you end up with some very substantial moves,” says Birinyi, president of Birinyi Associates. “We’re out there and very comfortable being bullish.”
The S&P has nearly doubled from its March 2009 low (667), though it remains down 16 percent from its October 2007 high (1,576).
Birinyi’s forecasts are based on technical indicators.
| Laszlo Birinyi |
Birinyi recommends buying Exxon Mobil, Prudhoe Bay, Ralph Lauren, Priceline, Cummins and Hermes.
Others are bullish on stocks too.
“The economy appears to be strengthening, the momentum seems to be shifting, rates are trending higher, and riskier assets like stocks are gaining traction,” Kevin Giddis, executive managing director at Morgan Keegan tells Marketwatch.
“How long this all will last is anyone’s guess, but the facts are facts, and this story is becoming a compelling one.”
As Speculative Bullish Bets Surge, Is Rice The Next Silver (And Manipulated In Kind?)

When we reported on last week's net spec contract position per the CFTC, we noted that speculators are expecting a roughly 50% hike in the price of rice based on comparable historical patterns. Updating for this week's data confirms that the upside price bets, which increased from 6,652 to 7,114 have just surged above the previous top hit in late 2009, of 6,773. Yet they are still just shy of the all time highs from February 2008 when they stood at 7,883. As the spec activity in rice predates major price moves rather efficiently, the continued bets on a price surge mean something is bound to snap. And with rice prices continuing to be rather sticky, considering the move in all other grains, we may be in for a very major break out in the coming week. Or not: as we have now learned the hard way, the banking cartel has way to keep commodity prices low, until explosive break outs confirm that one can only manipulate a price down for so long. With recent disclosures by Wikileaks that China had been imposing pressure on the Treasury and the US banking system to get what it wants, is it too surprising to assume that just as JPM has long been manipulating the price of silver, so Chinese interests in the US (remember - quid pro quo in a M.A.D. world) have been instructed to keep the price of Rough Rice as low for as long as possible. If that is the case, are the Rice vigilantes about to call the Chinese bluff? If rice succeeds in breaking out from its $13-$16 trading range, the move to the upside could make the recent doubling in cotton, and surges in corn and wheat seem like child's play.
47 Statistics That Indicate That Economic Stress Points In 2011 Could Be Setting The Stage For A Global Economic Meltdown In 2012
Sadly, very little has changed since the world financial system experienced almost a complete meltdown back in 2008. Global financial markets are still a whirlpool of debt and speculation. One really bad week could put us right back where we were prior to the infamous Wall Street bailouts. Very little in our world is truly stable anymore. As we have seen recently in Egypt, the globe can literally change almost overnight. All it would take is for one really bad event to happen and world financial markets would instantly start imploding.
So when will the coming economic collapse happen? Nobody knows for sure, but the fact that the global economy is increasingly becoming less stable as we approach the year 2012 is making a lot of people very nervous.
The following are 47 statistics that indicate that economic stress points in 2011 could be setting the stage for a global economic meltdown in 2012....
#1 According to the United Nations, global food prices set a new all-time record during the month of January.
#2 In early February the worst freeze in 60 years wiped out entire crops all across the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. Already, it has been reported that some U.S. supermarkets have doubled or even tripled prices for certain produce items.
#3 It is being reported that due to the recent horrible freeze in Mexico cases of tomatoes that would usually cost shop owners between 12 and 15 dollars are now going for up to $40.
#4 One of China's key agricultural provinces is facing its worst drought in 200 years.
#5 The Food and Agriculture Organization says that up to two-thirds of China's wheat crop could be at risk of failing due to weather conditions.