Despite Some Positive Indicators, Economy Remains on Shaky Ground

Based on four measures of risk -- the CBOE volatility index (VIX), the price of gold relative to silver, the 3-month Eurodollar rate less the 3-month Treasury bill rate (TED spread), and Bloomberg’s U.S. Financial Conditions Index, which “combines yield spreads and indices from the money markets, equity markets, and bond markets into a normalized index” -- things are apparently back to where the were before Lehman Brothers went belly up back in September. (more)

Offshore Oil Storage Trade Just Got Less Profitable

The implications of extra crude coming onto the market after last week’s oil energy report showed a rise in crude oil and Friday’s stronger than expected employment report boosting the dollar has to leave one wondering about the market direction for the price of crude oil. Below is an excerpt from Bloomberg that covers the story.

A fifth of supertankers being used to store oil are scheduled to deliver their cargoes, according to ICAP Shipping, a unit of ICAP Plc (IAPLY.PK), the world’s biggest broker of deals between banks.

A so-called notice of redelivery was issued for seven of 33 supertankers storing crude, Simon Chattrabhuti, a London-based analyst at ICAP, said by e-mail today. There “may well be others storing or that have given notice,” he said. Two new carriers were hired to store oil, the analyst said. (more)

Crude Oil Imminent Trend Reversal

Oil has staged the relief rally predicted in the last Oil Market update posted early in March. Our original target was the $70 - $80 area, but due to the time it has taken to get to the current level, the target is now lowered to the current level or a shade higher. The reason for this is that the slower rate of ascent than expected has allowed the 200-day moving average to drop down further, so that it is now in the low $60`s and still dropping quite steeply and it is rare for the price of anything to push far past a falling 200-day moving average before it reacts back again. (more)

Business Week, June 15, 2009

FREE PDF download click here

Futures and Options Trader, June 2009

FREE PDF download click here

Currency Trader, June 2009

FREE PDF download click here

Technically Precious With Merv, Weekly Commentary

FREE PDF weekly precious metals report