This aired yesterday on the Steve Quayle program.
Special guest was Dr. Steve Pieczenik for 2 hours.
hour #1
hour #2
Thursday, April 23, 2009
'There will be blood'
Harvard economic historian Niall Ferguson predicts prolonged financial hardship, even civil war, before the ‘Great Recession' ends
HEATHER SCOFFIELD
Globe and Mail Update
February 23, 2009 at 6:45 PM EDT
Harvard author and financial crisis guru Niall Ferguson has landed with a thud in Ottawa, spreading messages that could make even the most confident policy makers squirm.
The global crisis is far from over, has only just begun, and Canada is no exception, Mr. Ferguson said in an interview before delivering a presentation to public-policy think tank, Canada 2020.
Policy makers and forecasters who see a recovery next year are probably lying to boost public confidence, he said. And the crisis will eventually provoke political conflict, albeit not on the scale of a world war, but violent all the same.
The Buy America penchant pushed by the U.S. Congress in passing the recent stimulus bill was only the tip of the iceberg.
Abu Dhabi buying Nova Chemicals at bargain-basement prices on Monday is a sign of things to come, with financial power quickly being transferred over to the world's creditors – namely sovereign wealth funds – and away from the world's debtors.
And much of today's mess is the fault of central bankers who targeted consumer-price inflation but purposefully turned a blind eye to asset inflation. (more)
HEATHER SCOFFIELD
Globe and Mail Update
February 23, 2009 at 6:45 PM EDT
Harvard author and financial crisis guru Niall Ferguson has landed with a thud in Ottawa, spreading messages that could make even the most confident policy makers squirm.
The global crisis is far from over, has only just begun, and Canada is no exception, Mr. Ferguson said in an interview before delivering a presentation to public-policy think tank, Canada 2020.
Policy makers and forecasters who see a recovery next year are probably lying to boost public confidence, he said. And the crisis will eventually provoke political conflict, albeit not on the scale of a world war, but violent all the same.
The Buy America penchant pushed by the U.S. Congress in passing the recent stimulus bill was only the tip of the iceberg.
Abu Dhabi buying Nova Chemicals at bargain-basement prices on Monday is a sign of things to come, with financial power quickly being transferred over to the world's creditors – namely sovereign wealth funds – and away from the world's debtors.
And much of today's mess is the fault of central bankers who targeted consumer-price inflation but purposefully turned a blind eye to asset inflation. (more)
10 Charts Showing a Prolonged Global Recession: Credit Markets, Housing, and Equity Markets point to Lengthy Economic Contraction.
The IMF came out with a global report on the economy in October of 2008. Since that time, the global economy has deteriorated even further and the IMF has issued another report. I went ahead and looked at both documents and from what is presented, there is very little reason to believe we will see any stabilization in 2009. All the talk of a second half recovery would mean that things would need to start picking up on July 1st which doesn’t seem likely with news showing more hits to employment. Currently, we have 24 million Americans that are unemployed or underemployed and with news that GM won’t be able to make its June 1st payment and plant closures, we have to wonder what is going to happen to their 230,000+ worker force? (more)
How low could stock markets go?
By Dominic Frisby Apr 22, 2009
Dominic Frisby
Markets will be a sea of red for a while to come yet
After Monday's capitulation in the stock markets, which, if you read last week's missive, came right on cue, followed by yesterday's formidable rally, it's time to ask, 'Where next for the stock market?' I'll warn you right now – judging by past experience, the outlook is not pretty.
Meanwhile, precious metal investors should be aware that 'The Gordon Brown Gold Rally Indicator' has just flashed a buy signal – more on this below...
More similarities between the bust of 1929 and now
As you might know, I am fond of drawing parallels between 1929 and now. The cause of today's boom and bust – too much credit – was the same as the cause of the bust of 1929, so it is not unreasonable to expect the post-bubble contraction, the environment we are in now, to unfold in a similar manner. (more)
Dominic Frisby
Markets will be a sea of red for a while to come yet
After Monday's capitulation in the stock markets, which, if you read last week's missive, came right on cue, followed by yesterday's formidable rally, it's time to ask, 'Where next for the stock market?' I'll warn you right now – judging by past experience, the outlook is not pretty.
Meanwhile, precious metal investors should be aware that 'The Gordon Brown Gold Rally Indicator' has just flashed a buy signal – more on this below...
More similarities between the bust of 1929 and now
As you might know, I am fond of drawing parallels between 1929 and now. The cause of today's boom and bust – too much credit – was the same as the cause of the bust of 1929, so it is not unreasonable to expect the post-bubble contraction, the environment we are in now, to unfold in a similar manner. (more)
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Housing bubble smackdown: Huge “shadow inventory” portends a bigger crash ahead
Mike Whitney
Online Journal
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Due to the lifting of the foreclosure moratorium at the end of March, the downward slide in housing is gaining speed.
The moratorium was initiated in January to give Obama’s anti-foreclosure program — which is a combination of mortgage modifications and refinancing — a chance to succeed. The goal of the plan was to keep up to 9 million struggling homeowners in their homes, but it’s clear now that the program will fall well short of its objective.
In March, housing prices accelerated on the downside, indicating bigger adjustments dead ahead. Trend lines are steeper now than ever before — nearly perpendicular. Housing prices are not falling, they’re crashing and crashing hard.
Now that the foreclosure moratorium has ended, notices of default (NOD) have spiked to an all-time high. These notices will turn into foreclosures in four to five months’ time, creating another cascade of foreclosures. Market analysts predict there will be 5 million more foreclosures between now and 2011. It’s a disaster bigger than Katrina. (more)
5 Reasons House Prices May Never Recover
House prices will eventually stop falling, probably in about two years. But will they ever recover to the levels we saw during the heights of boom? In some areas, prices might climb that high again. But for most markets, such a recovery will probably never happen, and would take decades it were to occur.
In an essay published today, Charles Hugh Smith explains that the bubble vaulations are probably never coming back.
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Once the bubble in an asset class pops, it never reflates. "It is simply a truism that bubbles never reflate, ever. Tulip bulb valuations did not rise to stratospheric heights after the Tulip Craze popped, and the Nasdaq dot-com bubble did not reinflate, either, for the very good reason that bubbles are never based on rational valuations--they are based on the psychological state of mania which cannot be reinstated once lost," Smith writes. (more)
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Buy the Dip: Silver's on Sale!
Silver Stock Report
The world gold mines produces 2500 tonnes per year, which is about 80 million ounces. With gold at $867, that's $69 billion worth of gold mined each year. That's a tiny market in the scale of world finance, where the USA has $14,000 billion in the US banking system at risk, and has added $11,000 billion of commitments in bail outs, and continues to issue $800 billion bail outs with increasing regularity, with a total budget exceeding $3000 billion, and a budget deficit approaching $1500 billion.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_budget
The silver market is a lot smaller. Way smaller than the $69 billion in gold produced. World silver mines produce about 600 million ounces, at $11.88/oz. is $7.1 billion. Unlike with gold, where 95% of demand is for investment purposes, most silver has industrial applications, and there is little relative investment demand. Investment demand in silver is about 10-25% of the market, perhaps headed towards about 150 million ounces per year now, rapidly increasing in 2008, and in 2009 now. 150 million oz of silver, at $11.88 = $1.7 billion market.
Gold Eagle production is 710,000 oz., while Silver Eagle production was about 20 million ounces for 2008. The silver Eagle market is thus only a $237 million market, extremely tiny in the scale of world finance. (more)
by Jason Hommel, April 14th, 2009
Let's review the fundamentals of gold and silver.The world gold mines produces 2500 tonnes per year, which is about 80 million ounces. With gold at $867, that's $69 billion worth of gold mined each year. That's a tiny market in the scale of world finance, where the USA has $14,000 billion in the US banking system at risk, and has added $11,000 billion of commitments in bail outs, and continues to issue $800 billion bail outs with increasing regularity, with a total budget exceeding $3000 billion, and a budget deficit approaching $1500 billion.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_budget
The silver market is a lot smaller. Way smaller than the $69 billion in gold produced. World silver mines produce about 600 million ounces, at $11.88/oz. is $7.1 billion. Unlike with gold, where 95% of demand is for investment purposes, most silver has industrial applications, and there is little relative investment demand. Investment demand in silver is about 10-25% of the market, perhaps headed towards about 150 million ounces per year now, rapidly increasing in 2008, and in 2009 now. 150 million oz of silver, at $11.88 = $1.7 billion market.
Gold Eagle production is 710,000 oz., while Silver Eagle production was about 20 million ounces for 2008. The silver Eagle market is thus only a $237 million market, extremely tiny in the scale of world finance. (more)
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