When I went over the June 10th WASDE report for soybeans, two sentences pretty much said it all. It is bearish.
“Soybean
ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 330 million bushels, down 20
million from last month. Ending stocks for 2015/16 are reduced 25
million bushels to 475 million.”
There
was a drop, but it is insignificant especially looking at world stocks,
but for the US soybeans all it suggests is the weakness for old crop
will be less than new crop. What happens for new crop? Bad news. It is a
145 million bushel increase; a 44% increase. It is also assuming
exports will be an additional 10 million bushels for old crop due to
what has happened up to May. Even with the reductions, ending stocks are
more than adequate even with the strong crush. Great, there is a strong
crush, but what happens with all the meal? In Thursday’s USDA export
report not once were there sales of soybeans and meal to China. Japan
took about a half of a regular sized shipment of soybeans. (more)
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