Saturday, November 8, 2014

About That “S&P 500 Will Be 2,150 by Christmas” Call….

So this megaphone playing out again is just plain crazy.
Back on October 13, when the stock market was in free-fall, I prepared this chart showing a potential megaphone pattern. With major indicators (such as the MACD and stochastics) looking decidedly bearish, the idea that a rally would soon return the S&P 500 to the 2,030 area seemed crazy:
Three weeks later–ding-ding, we have a winner! The SPX has touched the top line of the megaphone drawn back in mid-October.

Now here’s another crazy idea: the megaphone pattern continues to play out, and the SPX reverses here and crashes 200 points down to the 1,800 level. I marked up this chart last weekend (chart is dated 10-31-14).
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