zerohedge.com / by Saxobank’s Steen Jakobsen via TradingFloor.com / 09/03/2014 10:36
In a nutshell: The
chance of EURCHF breaking the peg at 1.2000 have increased from 10% to
25-30% based on European Central Bank monetary policy, geopolitical risk
and a lack of policy choices for the Swiss National Bank. This means
that the weighted risk is now 9 figures – significantly up from 2
figures when I did a similar calculation back in 2011/12.
((1.2000-.9000= 30 figures) x 30% = 9 figures of risk) .This means that
being long EURCHF no longer is a safe bet and although the 70% chance of
the floor being both defended and protected is still high, the tail-risk involved is becoming to concerning.
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