On
Friday momentum stocks sold off with some verve again after the release
of the payrolls data. Since the latter were actually quite close to the
expected number, they cannot really have been the trigger of the
sell-off (in other words, it would probably have happened regardless of
the data). A few weeks ago, Charles Biederman of TrimTabs warned that
the upcoming tax season could lead to some selling, but there is also
the presidential cycle to consider. If the market continues to follow
this particular cycle model (it has actually done so year-to-date), it
should decline from an April high into an October low. What makes the
recent market action interesting is that there continue to be multiple
divergences in evidence between different indexes:
Russell
2000 Index, NDX, DJIA and SPX – the former two have been in sync, but
have diverged from the other indexes. There are many more intra-market
divergences between different sub-sectors that have been put in place
over recent months. (more)
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