Spikes in the price of oil have triggered recessions in the 1970s and
again in 1990. However, these points are historical anomalies. It
wasn't the price spike that caused the recession. Global geopolitical
events underlying the price moves caused the recessions. In both
examples, the details of the story held important information that
couldn't fit into a headline.
News headlines can often trigger
sharp moves in the stock market. Usually, it is the headline that
creates the reaction as traders and high-frequency trading firms try to
anticipate what is in the story.
For example, the monthly
employment report starts with a headline about the number of jobs
created or the current unemployment rate. Some traders scramble to buy
or sell while others read the report. In early December, the full report
was 39 pages long and analysts who read the entire report saw details
that headline writers missed. This is often the case, and those details
are the reason that sharp market moves driven by news are often
reversed. (more)
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