Saturday, October 5, 2013

Should We Be Selling Cocoa?

This is an interesting one: Cocoa
There’s a lot going on in this market that screams sell it. But let’s begin with price. This sucker is up 30% since March and now running into a declining 200 week moving average. I haven’t been long, but if I was I would certainly be taking profits up here. But is there enough to flip it short?
This is a daily candlestick chart of $CC_F showing a bearish divergence in momentum and currently breaking below its 20 day moving average. That’s another problem that I have with it. But fortunately for the cocoa bulls, it’s still above the uptrend line from June, for now…
10-3-13 cc
Seasonally, this could not be a worse time for Cocoa. Look how the month of October stands out:
10-3-13 cc seasonality
And sentiment wise, the wrong people love it and the wrong people hate it. It seems to me that the smart money (commercials) are dumping this commodity while the “dumb money” speculating are trying to chase this thing.
10-3-13 cc sentiment
I’m not a fan….
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