Wednesday, May 1, 2013

A major bull case for grain markets

Both the technicals and fundamentals point to the potential for powerfully higher prices

I am basing this conclusion on price charts, although I could also create a fundamental scenario to support the conclusions. I may reference a few of the fundamentals without comment herein. I provide this caveat — the technical bull case still has to be proven. Markets are about possibilities, not probabilities and not certainties. If you want probabilities, find a different blogger.
The long-term Meal charts are quite constructive. Consider the quarterly bar chart. The advance in early 2008 completed a massive 34-year base. The market then experienced a hard retest of the base starting in mid 2008. The rally in June 2012 confirmed the base and completed a 4-year symmetrical triangle. The weakness since September 2012 has been a retest of the triangle.
4.29_ZM_monthly close
The concept of classical charting is based on a tendency of markets with certain construction to repeat. By way of comparison, look at the quarterly chart of Silver. The current Meal chart has many similarities to what the Silver chart showed a few years ago. (more)

Please share this article

No comments:

Post a Comment