Wednesday, March 6, 2013

TSX Venture Resource Wasteland

Pinetree Capital (TSX: T.PNP, Stock Forum; 68 cents) I have used for years as a benchmark of investor sentiment. They hold a large portfolio of micro and small cap public companies across various sectors worth almost $200 million. Approximately 70% is weighted toward base and precious metals and 15% uranium and other specialty metals and minerals.
This five-year chart on Pinetree sums it up very well – we are currently back to the devastating lows hit in Q4/08 following the global economic collapse.
At that point, the level of pessimism hit an all-time low and the discussions centered on the 1930’s depression. The difference today, the Dow is near a five-year high and it is only the small, higher risk companies that are being subjected to these incredibly low valuation levels.
Junior golds collapse to $29 per gold ounce
To back this “post economic collapse” valuation scenario, we can also take a look at the junior gold stocks. I track 50 with a minimum one million ounces (43-101 compliant) and have been doing so since I noticed cracks in the foundation March 2011.
I use this to try and benchmark fair value for the sector overall, but also when researching individual companies and trying to determine their growth potential and risks. View my comments below on Victoria Gold and you will understand why this is important.
As the following chart will show, we hit what appeared to be a low in June 2012. At that time, we were all devastated that valuations could have fallen to these levels.
That basket of junior golds hit $29 per ounce this past week!



Algorithmic traders helping destroy our market
Defined: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algorithmic_trading
In “normal” times issuing news was a positive event that both companies and shareholders looked forward to. Now it is a liquidity event. If news is moderate to good – it creates enough buying for shareholders to liquidate. (more)


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