MUST READ: Peak Silver?

I spent a decade as an Energy analyst; or, more specifically, oilfield equipment, services, and drilling.  Thus, I was exposed to a tremendous amount of research on “peak oil;” which – shale oil notwithstanding – is yet to be proven either way.  Unfortunately, “peak” commodity studies cannot possibly incorporate ALL moving parts; nor foresee unexpected changes in demand, population, and technology trends.
That said, such studies can be extremely valuable – pointing out key hurdles to future production growth, and/or production cost.  That is, not only is “peak oil” a valid research topic, but “peak cheap oil.”
Heck, from the time I commenced my Energy career on the buy side in January 1996, until I left Salomon Smith Barney as a sell-side analyst in February 2005; the marginal cost of oil production stair-stepped higher; from levels to NEVER again be seen.  For nearly the entire duration of my 1996-2005 energy career, WTI Crude traded between $10/bbl and $35/bbl; not exceeding that high until late 2004; as compared to today’s recessionary price of nearly $100/bbl – and the 2008 peak of $150/bbl.  Thus, if anyone tells you “peak cheap oil” is not real, they are delusional.
Oh, by the way; when I left Salomon in February 2005, the Wall Street consensus for the “long-term” (3-5 years) oil price was… drum roll please… $18/bbl.  Why so low, you might ask?  TAR SANDS – which were hailed as a “sure thing” to swamp the market…

The reason I bring up “peak oil” is because “peak silver” is starting to be seriously debated; kicked off by the U.S. Geological Service’s ADMISSION (in the late 2000s) that silver is likely to be the first extinct element on the periodic table…(more)

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