Monday, December 31, 2012

Gerald Celente Trends Journal: Top Trends 2013

War & Peace, An Awakening: Renaissance or Ruin? 

1.  War: Call them what you will – civil wars, uprisings, protests, Arab Spring, terrorism, rebellions – when we add them up they equal the “The First Great War of the 21st Century.” Yet, even now, as the conflicts proliferate, only The Trends Journal recognizes that they are not only connected, but also cumulative.

 2.  Peace: From our trends catbird seat we see the ships of state heading on a collision course that will wreak global havoc. But if the Captains (Presidents, Prime Ministers, Chancellors, Kings and Emirs) follow the course we chart, not only will much of the world escape the worst ravages of war, we will sail toward a prosperous and peaceful future.

 3. The Next Great Awakening: The American Revolution had its roots in a powerful, little celebrated religion-inspired movement called “The Great Awakening.” We, at The Trends Journal have already determined that the stage has been set for a Second American Revolution that will draw its inspiration from a new “Great Awakening.” However, while the “New Awakening” we are forecasting will have a spiritual basis, it will not be “Christian specific,” and the Revolution it engenders will be fought with hearts and minds, not bullets and armies.  

4. A Fracking Future: Is energy independence in store for the United States and other nations with rich shale gas deposits?  While it will certainly create the millions of high-paying jobs that fracking proponents promise, will it also create the environmental “Frackenstein” that opponents of fracking fear? In an agenda-free, in-depth report, our science editor weighs the complex pros and cons. 

5. Millenials In Motion:
The Millennials, born from around 1980 through 2000 and some 77 million strong, are slated to become the first American generation to be financially worse off than their parents were. We’ve labeled them Generation Eff’d." For them, the perpetual growth and abundance once perceived as an American birthright has been replaced by a bleak future and an economy of constraint. We analyze what they want, how to sell them, and forecast what to expect from them. 


6. Bonds Away!: The Bond Bomb is ready to explode … threatening to make the real estate and dot-com bubbles, even the Great Recession, look like “market corrections." Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, economist and former assistant Secretary of the Treasury (under Ronald Reagan), sees a road to financial collapse that will make investors wish that the Mayan Prophesy had come true! 

7. New Millennium Education: The digital revolution has clearly begun to reshape our brick-and-mortar education system. But the New Millennium Education trend we forecast is a megatrend in the making, one that will entirely reconfigure our schools and our ideas about what education “looks like” and can be. While there is general agreement that the education system must adapt to the Digital Age, the magnitude of the coming change is not fully appreciated. Entire new professions will develop and a range of creative entrepreneurial opportunities will arise to meet the challenges and profit from the opportunities.

8. Secession Progression: A year ago, we forecast secession movements springing up around the world. The trend has grown from ripple to groundswell as citizens become increasingly hostile to their unresponsive governments. Following the re-election of Barack Obama in the US, over a million people signed petitions in favor of seceding from the Union. Worldwide, there are some 250 secessionist movements. As governments focus upon saving only the too-big-to-fail, people will rise up against nations seen as “too-big-to govern” and “too-broken-to fix.” The evidence for a secession trend is obvious, but the media and politicians ignore or deride it.

Plus Top Trends 2013 in technology, the Internet, cyberspace, food, wellness and nutrition that will present challenges for the off-trend while presenting opportunities to the trend-savvy.

Streible: Silver Will Be #1 Commodity Pick of 2013


James Paulsen: 2013 Investment Outlook

2013 Investment Outlook

by James Paulsen, Chief Investment Strategist, Wells Capital Management
We expect 2013 to deliver a fifth consecutive year of positive equity returns. In the last four years, the S&P 500 has produced almost a 15 percent annualized total return (compared to only about a 6 percent annualized return from long-term government bonds and while inflation only annualized 2.3 percent) despite a cultural mindset dominated by numerous fears and widespread doubts which chronically warned investors to be careful. That is, the bull market recovery has thus far climbed a perpetual wall of worry. Next year, however, a slow but steady rise in confidence will likely drive the S&P 500 above its previous all-time high of 1565 and perhaps even as high as 1700 sometime during the year. Although earnings may only rise modestly, improved equity valuations, pushed higher by a more confident investor with an elongating horizon, should prove the primary catalyst for the stock market. Moreover, improved confidence may also finally bring havoc to the bond market. Rising yields could result in negative bond returns encouraging a reallocation of mutual fund flows back toward equities.

Several key points regarding this outlook are worth highlighting.

Consensus economic growth expectations are too low

The consensus forecast for only 2 percent real GDP growth next year is tied to an expectation of significant fiscal tightening. Even though fiscal policy will be a headwind for growth in 2013, the degree of fiscal drag is probably overstated. The most likely outcome is a modest austerity program (tax hikes and spending cuts) implemented slowly over many future years which should not overwhelm economic growth. Furthermore, several other positive forces are being overlooked which should more than compensate for a bit of fiscal tightening.  (more)

China is the Short Behind Gold & Silver Manipulation

from Silver Doctors:
Harvey Organ again on the recent massive cartel intervention in the gold and silver markets post the QE4 announcement, the fiscal cliff, the CFTC’s silver probe, and the unprecedented 20 million oz of silver still standing for December delivery.
Harvey stated that recent evidence seems to validate his long held suspicions that China is behind the big gold & silver shorts, and stated that the nation is draining massive amounts of physical metal East.
Harvey also made the shocking allegation that COMEX is settling allocated delivery & storage requests with paper metal, and stated that he no longer has any faith whatsoever in the numbers reported in the COMEX gold and silver inventories.
Read More @ Silver Doctors

Hot Commodity Prospects in 2013

CNBC's Sharon Epperson shares her outlook on oil, gold, copper and corn next year, and Dan Dicker, MercBloc president, provides his energy forecast for 2013 and the best way to play oil and gas.












Global Economic Calendar This week

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Sun
Dec 30
Currency: gbp GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (DEC) Low
0.0% 0.0%
Currency: gbp GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC) Medium
-1.0% -1.2%
Currency: cny CNY Leading Index (NOV) Medium

100.42
Currency: eur EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (NOV) Medium

-2.8%
Currency: eur EUR German Retail Sales (YoY) (NOV) Medium

-0.8%
19:01 Currency: gbp GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (DEC) Low

17
19:30 Currency: aud AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (NOV) Medium

0.1%
19:30 Currency: aud AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY) (NOV) Medium

3.8%
20:45 Currency: cny CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (DEC) Medium
51.0 50.5
Mon
Dec 31
09:00 Currency: usd USD NAPM-Milwaukee (DEC) Low

45.5
10:30 Currency: usd USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (DEC) Low

-2.8
20:00 Currency: cny CNY Manufacturing PMI (DEC) High
51.0 50.6
Tue
Jan 1
17:30 Currency: aud AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (DEC) Medium

43.6
18:00 Currency: aud AUD RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (DEC) Low

0.0%
Wed
Jan 2
Currency: gbp GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (DEC) Low
0.0% 1.0%
Currency: gbp GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (DEC) Low
-0.7% -1.3%
03:45 Currency: eur EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (DEC) Low

45.1
03:50 Currency: eur EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (DEC F) Low
44.6 44.6
03:55 Currency: eur EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (DEC F) Medium

46.3
04:00 Currency: eur EUR Euro-zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (DEC F) Medium

46.3
04:30 Currency: gbp GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (DEC) Medium
49.1 49.1
08:00 Currency: eur EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (DEC P) Medium

-0.1%
08:00 Currency: eur EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (DEC P) High

1.9%
08:00 Currency: eur EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (DEC P) Medium

-0.2%
08:00 Currency: eur EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (DEC P) High

1.9%
08:58 Currency: usd USD Markit US PMI Final (DEC) Low

52.8
10:00 Currency: usd USD Construction Spending (MoM) (NOV) Medium

1.4%
10:00 Currency: usd USD ISM Manufacturing (DEC) High

49.5
10:00 Currency: usd USD ISM Prices Paid (DEC) Medium

52.5
20:00 Currency: cny CNY Non-manufacturing PMI (DEC) Medium

55.6
Thu
Jan 3
03:00 Currency: chf CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (DEC) Medium
1.31 1.5
03:30 Currency: chf CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (DEC) Medium
48.3 48.5
03:55 Currency: eur EUR German Unemployment Change (DEC) High

5K
03:55 Currency: eur EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. (DEC) Medium

6.9%
04:00 Currency: eur EUR Euro-zone M3 s.a. (3M) (NOV) Low

3.1%
04:00 Currency: eur EUR Euro-zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (NOV) Low

3.9%
04:30 Currency: gbp GBP Net Consumer Credit (NOV) Medium
0.0B -0.5B
04:30 Currency: gbp GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (DEC) Medium
49.8 49.3
04:30 Currency: gbp GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (NOV) Medium

0.2B
04:30 Currency: gbp GBP Mortgage Approvals (NOV) Medium
54.0K 53.0K
04:30 Currency: gbp GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (NOV) Low

0.2%
04:30 Currency: gbp GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (NOV) Low

-3.2%
04:30 Currency: gbp GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (NOV) Low

5.4%
07:00 Currency: usd USD MBA Mortgage Applications (DEC 28) Low

-12.3%
07:30 Currency: usd USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (DEC) Low

34.4%
08:00 Currency: usd USD RBC Consumer Outlook Index (JAN) Low

46.9
08:15 Currency: usd USD ADP Employment Change (DEC) Medium

118K
08:30 Currency: usd USD Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 29) Medium



08:30 Currency: usd USD Continuing Claims (DEC 23) Low



14:00 Currency: usd USD Minutes of FOMC Meeting High



17:00 Currency: usd USD Total Vehicle Sales (DEC) Low

15.46M
17:00 Currency: usd USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (DEC) Low

12.01M
17:30 Currency: aud AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (DEC) Medium

47.1
18:50 Currency: jpy JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (DEC 28) Low



18:50 Currency: jpy JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (DEC 28) Low



18:50 Currency: jpy JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (DEC 28) Low



18:50 Currency: jpy JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (DEC 28) Low



20:45 Currency: cny CNY HSBC Services PMI (DEC) Medium

52.1
Fri
Jan 4
Currency: jpy JPY Official Reserve Assets Low

$1270.9B
02:45 Currency: eur EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (DEC) Low

44.6
03:50 Currency: eur EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (DEC F) Low
46.0 46
03:55 Currency: eur EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (DEC F) Medium

52.1
04:00 Currency: eur EUR Euro-zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (DEC F) Medium

47.8
04:00 Currency: eur EUR Euro-zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (DEC F) Medium

47.3
04:30 Currency: gbp GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (DEC) Low

$44M
04:30 Currency: gbp GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (DEC) Medium
50.1 50.2
05:00 Currency: eur EUR Euro-zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (DEC) Medium

2.2%
08:30 Currency: usd USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (DEC) High

146K
08:30 Currency: usd USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (DEC) Medium

-7K
08:30 Currency: usd USD Change in Private Payrolls (DEC) Low

147K
08:30 Currency: usd USD Unemployment Rate (DEC) High

7.7%
08:30 Currency: usd USD Underemployment Rate (U6) (DEC) Medium

14.4%
08:30 Currency: usd USD Change in Household Employment (DEC) Medium

-122
08:30 Currency: usd USD Average Hourly Earnings All Employees (MoM) (DEC) Medium

0.2%
08:30 Currency: usd USD Average Hourly Earnings All Employees (YoY) (DEC) Medium

1.7%
08:30 Currency: usd USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (DEC) Low

34.4
08:30 Currency: cad CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM) (NOV) Low

-0.1%
08:30 Currency: cad CAD Raw Materials Price Index (MoM) (NOV) Low

0.0%
08:30 Currency: cad CAD Net Change in Employment (DEC) High

59.3K
08:30 Currency: cad USD Full Time Employment Change (DEC) Medium

55.2
08:30 Currency: cad CAD Part Time Employment Change (DEC) Low

66.8
08:30 Currency: cad CAD Participation Rate (DEC) Low

4.1
08:30 Currency: cad CAD Unemployment Rate (DEC) High

7.2%
10:00 Currency: usd USD Factory Orders (NOV) Medium

0.8%
10:00 Currency: usd USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (DEC) Medium

54.7
10:30 Currency: usd USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (DEC 28) Low



13:15 Currency: usd USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Real Business Cycles in San Diego Low



15:30 Currency: usd USD Fed's Yellen Speaks on Systemic Risk in San Diego Low



17:30 Currency: usd USD Fed's Bullard to Speak to Economists in San Diego (DEC) Low