Saturday, November 3, 2012

Watch Out! It is Raining in South America



In a recent commentary I suggested it might be a good idea to go back to the days of early school years and summon up memories of geography classes. Until there is a year or two of what can be considered semi-normal weather for crop production, traders will be on the edge of their seats whenever there are reports of any possibility of too little or too much rain. 

As I have talked about several times because of the internet, there has been an exponential proliferation of commodity analysts. The same can be said with experts on weather and new meteorological services.  And like most analysts and brokers reporting on commodities, doing it as a way to get out in front of potential clients in order to sell services (me too), the same can be said for most reporting on weather. Of course, being correct with an outlook or predictions helps, but knowing how to present what is read or heard, may even help more than being correct. Look at all the rumors that are used almost as facts day after day. Most people can tell when something is completely false, but when a rumor is presented as fact, and is repeated several times, it is often difficult to tell fact from rumor.

What is happening in South America?

Most people, even bad artists like me, can draw a decent outline of North America and South America. However, I doubt many can come up with comparisons to optimum temperatures of planting and degrees of heat for growing according to the Equator, the Tropic of… or best summer growing conditions per month.  (more)

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