In a recent commentary I suggested it might be a
good idea to go back to the days of early school years and summon up
memories of geography classes. Until there is a year or two of what can
be considered semi-normal weather for crop production, traders will be
on the edge of their seats whenever there are reports of any possibility
of too little or too much rain.
As I have
talked about several times because of the internet, there has been an
exponential proliferation of commodity analysts. The same can be said
with experts on weather and new meteorological services. And like most
analysts and brokers reporting on commodities, doing it as a way to get
out in front of potential clients in order to sell services (me too),
the same can be said for most reporting on weather. Of course, being
correct with an outlook or predictions helps, but knowing how to present
what is read or heard, may even help more than being correct. Look at
all the rumors that are used almost as facts day after day. Most people
can tell when something is completely false, but when a rumor is
presented as fact, and is repeated several times, it is often difficult
to tell fact from rumor.
What is happening in South America?
Most
people, even bad artists like me, can draw a decent outline of North
America and South America. However, I doubt many can come up with
comparisons to optimum temperatures of planting and degrees of heat for
growing according to the Equator, the Tropic of… or best summer growing
conditions per month. (more)
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