Short the Euro, and Make a Buck: DRR, EUO

This column doesn't usually give investing advice unless it's some kind of smart-alecky rant against gold.

But sometimes an investment is such an obvious winner that not even a dummy can pass. That's why you should short the euro. It's easy money.

For more than two years, the European Union has been wrangling with Greece's sovereign-debt problems. And if you thought the U.S. government's response to our financial crisis was bad, the EU is making Timothy Geithner look downright competent.

There have been lukewarm agreements, deals with the International Monetary Fund and its ladies'-man former chief. There have been global summits, international pressure and rescue packages. But none of this has done much to alleviate the crisis. They've bought time, sure, but there's just been time to fight.

Of course, we know that the Greece debt problem isn't about Greece at all. It's about the German and French banks that hold the bonds. And it's not even about the Grecian bonds but Spanish, Portuguese and Italian bonds, too.

For the moment, however, let's limit this to Greece.

French and German banks have $90.7 billion in exposure to that country's sovereign debt. To make matters worse, Italian and Portuguese banks have a combined $11.4 billion in exposure, according to the Bank of International Settlements.

Now, let's consider Portugal. Weakling Spain has nearly $85 billion in bank and nonbank exposure to its Iberian neighbor. Germany has close to $40 billion in exposure and France nearly $30 billion, according to the BIS.

Finally, Spain's debt is as manageable as a running of the bulls in an elevator. Here, Germany holds $180 billion; France, $140 billion; and even the United States, close to $50 billion &mdash with $19.5 billion of that on bank balance sheets.

This should not only make you feel better about the U.S. bank bailouts &mdash the majority of which have been repaid — but about your own credit-card debt.

What's striking is that even though Europe's dismal state of affairs has been apparent for a long time now, the euro continues to hold steady. There have been a couple of reasons for this. For one, some economies, mostly Germany's, have been strong. Secondly, the European Central Bank has been buying all of this sovereign debt to keep spreads as low as possible. It's spent more than $22 billion so far.

Yet the spreads still look terrible. Five-year Italian bonds are trading at around 5.5%. The problem, of course, is that at-risk countries like Italy and Greece can't afford to pay that kind of rate.

You'd never know it by looking at the euro, which even at $1.36 is still trading above its levels of January and February. The euro is 14% higher than it was in June of last year.

That level would be fine if European finance officials had taken steps to make people feel, I don't know, maybe 14% better. But do any investors feel better about Europe?

Again, consider the two main supports for the euro. The economy was doing well, but now there's ample evidence it isn't. Germany's gross domestic product rose just 0.1% in the latest period. That was even slower than the U.S.'s growth rate.

And what about the ECB? Well, it will keep buying, for now. Down the road, central banks come under pressure for intervention in "free" financial markets. Just ask Rick Perry, the front-running candidate for the Republican presidential nomination. He said that if Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke used the Fed to pump up the U.S. economy it would border on "treason."

Ultimately, for investors, the good news is that Europe has been telegraphing its moves for two years. That's practically unheard of in the markets, where outlooks can change in seconds. And what moves is the EU telegraphing? That it's either going to embark on an expensive bailout to save the debt of at-risk nations or let Greece and its bigger-but-just-as-weak neighbors default.

The former would hurt the euro. The latter would absolutely kill it.

Considering all of this, is Europe's currency really worth 36% more than the U.S. currency? Really? Unemployment is just as high in Europe, at 9.5%, as in the U.S. Economic growth is slowing, just as in the U.S. Europe's banks are at greater risk. And it costs more for every country in the EU, including Germany, to borrow than it costs the U.S.

Look at Market Vectors Double Short Euro ETN (DRR - News) and Ultrashort Euro ProShares (EUO - News), and, if you're not interested in gambling, just hold on to your dollars and wait before planning your next trip to Europe.