In any long-term bull market, we would normally expect to observe several phases. Put another way, in any long-term trend (in this case higher) we would not expect to see this entire period dominated by a single trading pattern.
In “free and open markets”, the simple dynamics of supply and demand will almost always change trading patterns as the years go by – and rising prices re-shape a market. Even in our own, heavily-manipulated markets we would expect that the combination of rising prices and time would serve to create new patterns and dynamics.
This is certainly true with precious metals markets. The gold market in particular has exhibited three, distinct phases since its massive, bull market began a decade earlier. The 10-year chart below provides us with an illustration of these phases (and patterns).
The first phase can be succinctly summed-up as the “sleeper” phase, in more than one respect. First of all, this was clearly the “stealth” segment of this bull market. Only the most-savvy gold bulls and investors were buying the yellow metal back in those days – with most of the public still “asleep”. Similarly, the bullion-bankers were smug and apathetic themselves; still not even dreaming that their multi-decade choke-hold on this market was about to be broken. The result is a very “sleepy” chart pattern: a slow-and-steady rise in the price of gold – right up to the beginning of 2006.
We can think of 2006 as either the year of “awakening” in the gold market, the year that the “war” (to control this market) really began, or simply both. Clearly, when gold sailed past the $500/oz mark without even a pause this (finally) got the attention of both significant numbers of investors and the bullion-banks themselves.
What followed over the next three years can be thought of as the bullion equivalent of “The Battle of the Bulge”. It was nothing less than a struggle for the “control” of the gold and silver markets. That infamous World War II battle marked Nazi Germany’s last major “offensive” in the West which was actually aimed at “victory” – rather than merely delaying defeat. In the gold market, it was the banksters’ last attempt to demonstrate that they still “owned” this market, and (as with the Nazis) it ultimately ended with their own, crushing defeat.
During those three years, however, we see that the bullion banks were successful in one respect: in each of those years they were able to generate at least one dramatic reversal – with the result being that the years 2006 - 2008 marked the period of most-extreme volatility over that first decade.
Following the decisive defeat of the bullion banks at the end of 2008, we moved into the third phase of this bull market: controlled ascent. Obviously the price of gold did not move in a simple, straight line from the start of 2009. However, while we see some mild oscillations in the 60-day moving average (above), they are virtually “rhythmic” in their pattern – with the result being a relatively smooth progression from roughly the $800/oz level to the $1600/oz level. (more)
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